Sunday, April 20, 2008

ArcelorMittal to invest $25 bn in India

ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steel maker, is planning to invest nearly $25 billion in the country, according to a top company official. "India is one of the star performers and we are very bullish about it. We are committed to invest nearly $25 billion," Malay Mukherjee, member of the group management board of the company said.

Other investments by the company in India
Besides investing $10 billion each in Orissa and Jharkhand on 12 million tonnes steel project each, the company proposes to have more customer-oriented projects such as service centres in the country. "We are also working in joint venture in Chennai in stainless steel, for the automotive sector," Mukherjee said. ArcelorMittal is putting up two steel plants of 12 million tonnes capacity each in Orissa and Jharkhand at a total cost of $20 billion.

Monday, April 14, 2008

Brain drain is passe, India a hot destination for CEOs

Excerpts sourced from Rediff.com

The Indian office of a leading multinational mobile phone company is facing an unusual challenge. It is losing top executives who have declined senior-level assignments abroad because they do not want to miss opportunities in India.

The brain drain, it seems, is passe. India is becoming one of the hottest destinations for expatriates (both those of Indian origin and foreigners) for top jobs. That is because big business houses in India are ready to offer pay packets that are equivalent to and sometimes more than global benchmarks.

This is a key finding of a study of senior recruitment trends by US-based SpencerStuart, a leading executive search firm that specialises in recruiting CEOs, presidents and COOs for companies globally.

SpencerStuart, which has operations in India and recruits CEOs for almost half the Fortune 500 companies, said for key sectors like retail, real estate, power, oil and gas and refining, transportation and logistics, Indian business houses are offering annual salary packages ranging from $750,000 to $1.5 million - excluding stock options.

Nearly half the CEOs and COOs recruited in these sectors are foreigners (including non-resident Indians).

CEO salaries in these sectors are nearly double what companies pay in other sectors, which could range from $350,000 to $750,000.

"Expats are increasingly finding India a more exciting market in which to work than mature markets. And large Indian companies in certain sectors are willing to match if not better global salaries to get talent which is difficult to get in India," said Anjali Bansal, managing director of SpencerStuart.

In fact, she added, multinationals are finding it difficult to woo Indians at the senior level to take up foreign postings abroad.

As a strategy, SpencerStuart has advised clients to shift regional headquarters from, say, Singapore or Hong Kong to India so that senior Indian executives can operate as heads from India. Several companies are considering this option.

SpencerStuart also said certain countries have been identified for CEO recruitment for India. Contrary to common belief the US is not the favoured recruitment ground.

In real estate the happy hunting grounds include Australia, south east Asia and the UK, amongst others. For oil and gas and power they are Kazakhstan, the North Sea area, Canada and West Asia. For retail the hottest recruitment grounds are West Asia, south east Asia (especially Hong Kong) and Europe.

Bansal said that the recruitment ground is essentially from countries that have seen similar development as India.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

India a 'fraud haven,' says report

Terming the country as a 'fraud haven' with about 60 per cent of the firms having detected frauds in past two years, global consultancy major KPMG on Tuesday said that India Inc is still unprepared to handle this menace.

Making the situation even worse, at least 5 per cent companies have had losses exceeding Rs 10 crore (Rs 100 million) and more than double of them have estimated the hit on their bottom lines in the range of Rs 1 crore (Rs 10 million) to Rs 10 crore, KPMG said citing its 'India Fraud Survey Report 2008.'

According to the survey, over 70 per cent of companies believe that fraud in India would further increase in next two years, while over 80 per cent respondents recognised fraud as a problem in the corporate environment in the country.

Indicating about 54 per cent rise in the number of fraud occurrences since the previous survey in 2006, about 60 per cent of respondents confirmed having experienced fraud at their companies, as against just 39 per cent two years ago.

While noting that actual cost of fraud to business was difficult to estimate as not all are discovered, KPMG said that 31 per cent of those surveyed suffered losses of Rs 10 lakh (Rs 1 million) to Rs 1 crore, while 11 per cent put the losses at Rs 1-10 crore and another 5 per cent at more than Rs 10 crore. However, it was less than Rs 10 lakh for about 53 per cent.

The financial services sector has retained its position as the most susceptible to frauds, while real estate and infrastructure surpassed IT and ITeS as the second most risky business in this regard, the survey found.

The report further pointed out that threat of fraud comes mostly from within the organisation. Majority of those surveyed felt that 'employees pose the maximum threat to an organisation and the senior management is more likely to commit fraud as compared to other employees.'

According to other findings of the survey, over 75 per cent of companies believe that fraud remaining undetected is their biggest concern, followed by inadequacy of anti-fraud measures and unethical behaviour of their employees.

KPMG said that the dual impact of two concerns, unethical behaviour of employees and inadequacy of anti-fraud measures, leads to an environment where both inclination and opportunity co-exist. 'This could mean that organisations in India that remain passive in their approach to deal with fraud may be a perfect breeding ground for fraud,' it added.

KPMG said that over 80 per cent of respondents believed that corporate sector pay bribes or make facilitation payments to do business in India. However, 60 per cent did not have adequate knowledge about anti-corruption laws.

Among the respondents, close to 25 per cent were at the level of an executive director, managing director or chief executive officer, while 30 per cent were chief financial officers of companies.

The inherent responsibilities and trust associated with senior positions, ability to over-ride internal controls, internal knowledge and access to confidential information increases the risks, it noted.

After employees, the maximum threat is perceived from suppliers and service providers, KPMG said.

'With the increase in the number of business transactions combined with the lack of effective monitoring, frauds are a real time threat for most corporates in India. It comes as a surprise that even the larger companies operating in India do not have adequate risk management strategies,' KPMG India's Forensic Services head Deepankar Sanwalka said.

Tuesday, December 25, 2007

Forecasts for the economy & markets in 2008

Author: Abheek Barua, Chief Economist, HDFC Bank
Source: Rediff

Since this is my last piece this year I thought I would write about the forecasts I have made for the global economy and financial markets for 2008. There is an important caveat, of course. The global macroeconomic and financial environment remains terribly volatile and a number of these predictions could go wrong.
Let me get to the forecasts. The jury appears to be still out on whether the US is headed for a recession next year (going by the textbook, a situation in which GDP growth turns negative for two successive quarters) or whether swift action by the US Federal Reserve is likely to prevent such a situation. US consumption data like retail numbers occasionally surprise positively and US inflation is far from dead. However, despite this bit of fuzziness I remain somewhat sanguine about the following trends.

Whether it qualifies technically as recession or not, the US is likely to see a marked slowdown at least in the first half of 2008, which could last well into the second half of the year. Besides, despite central banks' best efforts, it will take a while for American and European banks to resume lending to each other and to even slightly risky borrowers. Thus, I see the credit squeeze in the US and Europe continuing and perhaps even getting worse in the near term.

The US slowdown is likely to have knock-on effects on the global economy and world GDP growth is likely to moderate. More specifically the result of sharp currency appreciation, harder interest rates and a credit squeeze will begin to take a toll on euro-zone growth. The UK is well into a cyclical downturn.

As I have argued in earlier columns, I think it is impossible for Asian economies to remain immune to a downturn in the developed economies and growth rates will soften in this region as well. I honestly don't know much about Latin America but I think it is sensible to assume that what applies to Asia applies to these economies as well.

Global energy and food prices are likely to remain elevated in the first quarter but are likely to dip subsequently as demand compression on the back of slowing world demand begins to reflect in prices. I am, for example, convinced that concerns about fresh oil supplies and oil peaks notwithstanding, slower global growth is fundamentally incompatible with oil prices at over ninety dollars a barrel.

The same logic might just apply to other assets including stocks. If indeed the signs of global slowdown become more acute, large investors might begin to dump equities and hold on to safer assets like treasury bonds. If there is growing aversion to equities as an asset class, Asian markets (including Indian stock markets) will also take a hit. The slide in stock prices will not be due to risk-aversion alone.

If global growth slows, the slowing down will begin to impact the top line and bottom line growth of companies across economies. That in turn will buttress the negative sentiment towards risky assets. The bottom line: be prepared for a "correction" in the Indian stock market next year.

There is a potential offset. The US Fed is likely to follow a policy of phased quarter percentage point cuts in its target interest rate - I expect the American central bank to cut the Fed funds rate thrice next year. Thus while inflation risks will weigh on the Fed's mind, I expect growth concerns to dominate and spur the Fed to cut rates some more. I expect the European Central Bank to hold interest rates until the second half and then start cutting signal rates.

My bank's research team has forecast two rate cuts next year, possibly in the second half. The Bank of England is likely to be swifter with two quarter percentage point cuts in the first half of 2008. We also expect more direct liquidity both through unilateral cash infusion by central banks and perhaps through more co-ordinated intervention.

The question is: what happens to all this liquidity when central banks turn on their cash spigots? If investors remain terribly risk-averse, a lot of it would go into low-risk government bonds.

US treasury bond prices will continue to move up and yields will decline as this process continues. Besides, if US assets keep getting cheaper and cheaper, investors will sniff a bargain and start buying these assets. In fact, some of the bigger funds have already started picking up chunks of the American financial industry where valuations have hit rock-bottom. Asian sovereign investment funds, for instance, are bailing out cash-strapped American banks, picking up significant equity stakes in the process.

Finally, there is also a chance that some of the money will start finding its way into emerging financial markets where growth rates, at least in relative terms, will remain high in comparison with the rest of the world. What happens then? My prediction is that emerging markets including India are likely to get buffeted by the crosswinds of rising global liquidity and cheaper interest rates, on one side, and concerns about slowing growth, on the other. This means two things.

Our stock markets will remain volatile for a while to come and sharp upswings could be followed by a quick downturn. Ditto for the currency markets. The interplay of these opposing forces also means that these markets will be stuck in a range. Thus I do not see the possibility of prolonged phases of decline, nor do I see the prospect of an untrammelled bull run.

What will take the markets out of the doldrums? Since the problems of the US economy lie at the heart of all the problems, it will take some clarity on the situation there to do this. Any strong signal that the US cycle has bottomed out will lead to a quick re-pricing of risk and realignment of asset prices.

Sunday, September 23, 2007

Car Models in India

Listed below are some of the major automotive brands and their models on Indian roads:

Latest Cars
Chevrolet Spark | Fiat Grande Punto | Mahindra Ingenio | Mahindra Renault Logan | Maruti Suzuki SX4 | Mitsubishi iCar | Skoda Fabia | Toyota Lexus LS 460

Hyundai Motors India
Hyundai Elantra | Hyundai Accent | Hyundai Getz | Hyundai Santro Xing |
Hyundai Sonata Embera | Hyundai Terracan | Hyundai Tucson | Hyundai Verna

Maruti Udyog
Maruti 800 | Maruti Alto | Maruti Baleno | Maruti Esteem |
Maruti Grand Vitara XL-7 | Maruti Gypsy | Maruti Omni | Maruti Swift | Maruti Suzuki SX4 | Maruti Versa | Maruti Wagon R | Maruti Zen | Zen Estilo

Sports Cars
Ferrari 248 F1 Racing Car | Ferrari F1-2000 | Ferrari F2001 Racing Car | McLaren F1 Racing Car | McLaren SLR 722 Sports Car

Bentley Motors Limited
Bentley Arnage | Bentley Azure | Bentley Brooklands | Bentley Continental Flying Spur | Bentley Continental GT

Lamborghini India
Lamborghini Gallardo | Lamborghini Gallardo Spyder | Lamborghini Murcielago LP640

Mercedes
Mercedes Benz C-Class | Mercedes-Benz CLS | Mercedes Benz E-Class | Mercedes Benz SLK-Class | Mercedes-Benz SL-500

Ford Motors
Ford Endeavour | Ford Fiesta | Ford Fusion | Ford Ikon | Ford Mondeo

Fiat India
Fiat 1.6 Sport Adventure | Fiat Grande Punto | Fiat Palio | Fiat Petra

Honda India
Honda Accord | Honda City ZX | Honda CR-V | Honda Civic

Hindustan Motors
Ambassador Car | Mitsubishi iCar | Mitsubishi Lancer | Lancer Cedia | Mitsubishi Pajero

General Motors
Chevrolet Aveo | Chevrolet Aveo U-VA | Chevrolet Forester | Chevrolet Optra | Chevrolet Spark | Chevy SRV | Chevrolet Tavera | Opel Corsa | Opel Corsa Sail

Skoda Auto
Skoda Fabia | SkodaLaura | Skoda Laurin & Klement | SkodaOctavia | SkodaOctavia Combi | SkodaSuperb

Porsche
Porsche Boxster | Porsche Carrera GT | Porsche Cayenne

Tata Motors
Tata Indica | Indica V2 Xeta | Tata Indigo | Tata Indigo Marina | Tata Indigo SX | Tata Safari | Tata Sumo Victa

Toyota Motors
Toyota Camry | Toyota Corolla | Toyota Innova | Land Cruiser Prado | Toyota Lexus LS 460

Reva

Mahindra & Mahindra
Mahindra Bolero | Mahindra Scorpio | Mahindra Ingenio | Mahindra Renault Logan

BMW
BMW 530i | BMW 760Li

Audi
Audi A4 | Audi A6 | Audi A8 | Audi Q7

Nissan Motors
Nissan X-Trail

Rolls-Royce Motor Cars
Rolls-Royce Phantom

BPO Sector Outlook

According to:

Dick Vleesenbeek
- Talent shortages are driving labour markets to become increasingly more global, competitive, and employee-driven
- BPO predicted to be an $80B industry by 2009/10
- RPO (subset of BPO) estimated to grow into a $20B by 2009/10
- Vendor Management Solutions (Managed Service Provider) Market predicted to grow to be $4.2B by 2009/10
- Clients are searching for true global solutions and partners
- Trend toward complex, comprehensive solutions (workforce management models) to blend the expertise of internal/external partners
- The trend toward solutions providing off-shoring and shared service components continues
- Staffing and consulting firms face an environment of evolving legislation, increasing consolidation, and technological advancements impacting the business

Atul Subbiah
Manager - M&A Strategy at Deloitte Consulting

1. The coming of age of the major Indian suppliers
2. The unbundling of contracts where deal size is getting smaller
3. Contracts are getting shorter and work is being spread across multiple providers
4. Large deals are being split, with an increase in number of multi vendor contracts leveraging the near shore and offshore options
5. Large outsourcing contracts signed in the 1990s are coming up for re-bidding

Sunmeet Jolly
A Dropping Dollar may affect the attractiveness and ROI in Outsourcing Industry. The trend needs to be watched carefully over next 2-3 years. Rising wages in Outsourcing Providing Countries also adds to the marging pressures. But Demand for Outsourced Services will definitely increase as projected by Analyst firms. Its likely to become a high volume game and we can see some consolidation on vendor side.

Deverick McIntyre PMP
Industry Leader on China's IT & outsourcing industry

Packaged ITO+BPO+ Infrastructure Management Outsourcing is a significant new trend. We have seen this type of consolidation especially in the Financial Services industry, where, for example, the IT system supporting the outsourced business process is hosted and administered by the same vendor.

It makes sense for many clients to consolidate the BPO and IT contracts with the one vendor to achieve synergies and manage risks. This is not good news for pure BPO players, however for the large Indian outsourcers such as Infosys, TATA and Wipro, as well as international players IBM, Accenture, Cap Gemini etc, it is a perfect fit with their broad solution sets.

Packaged IT/BPO contracts are much larger than pure BPO deals and this trend has led to the increasing use of sourcing consultants such as TPI, Everest Group or smaller players such as TaidaL for thorough due diligence.

The other equally important new trend is contract pricing based on client business revenue/risk. Mainly seen in ITO contracts, the trend to package ITO with BPO will result in more innovative BPO contracts using client business based pricing. It is an interesting trend which has come about as clients force consulting companies pushing solutions to "put their money where their mouth is" and invest in the outcome. "If this solution is good for my business then partner with us in the upside (and downside) risk"

Hossam Elgamal
General Manager of GNSE Group

the Global Business Process Outsourcing sector and just after the launch of the latest ATKearny report, shows a tough competition between different emerging players and existing well established ones like India.
this competition is certainly in the favor of the business, shaping up the processes, increasing the quality and diversifying the options and resources in such global industry.
the result in the coming 1-3 years would certainly be a more rewarding choice to clients with less risk and a more framed quality of delivery, more important an observation that is taking place currently where giant players (indian ones like Satyam, TATA, WIPRO...) are having competency centers outside India to diversify their offering, minimize the risk, better control the cost and benefit more of the other countries benefits... thus becoming truely global... which in turn would lead those countries of choice to learn from the experience, build the expertise and start becoming important players in that market..

but mostly important is the fact that Clients will benefit further and more clearer from the BPO, which will come to a maturity stage.

a) the emerging significant developments/trends would be the diversifications of the countries for large BPO players, and the globalizations in the true meaning of the services.

b) driving this trend are: 1. the clients experience and need for better risk management, further more options and choices, better quality, managed cost. 2. the Giant BPO players need to maintain competitive advantage, and capitalizing on the globalization opportunity 3. the Awarness of the emerging countries in that industry, their government support, and their industry maturity.

c) as i said, the key players are moving more agressively into a globalized diversified offering, not standing still in one country only. example for that WIPRO and SATYAM moved recently to open competency centers with 1000s of resources in Egypt, as the government is agressively supporting the initiative by providing incentives, and building the capacity of the local resources, while cost is very competitive and mastering arabic as well as different european languages help providing a competitive advantage!!

Source: LinkedIn

Thursday, September 20, 2007

Future of IT / ITES / KPOs

We seem to have come a full-circle actually. Outsourcing started with low end menial data entry jobs that were discrete and modularized tasks, not interwoven into the company’s real-time environment. Then we graduated upwards to application maintenance, then onward to application development and then design and system architecture work. Call center and BPO brought about a mission-critical real-time and process driven mode of outsourcing with SLA and metrics based performance measures. With the rise of KPO, the emphasis is now on skills-based and decision-making type of work that is neither “mission-critical” nor “real-time” – yet it is more intimately tied to the top-line performance of companies than ever before in the past. With KPO, there are no metrics, no SLAs, no cultural or accent issues, no time-zone barriers and a productized consulting model that is driving a new breed of companies. With a combination of data aggregation, research, analytical, modeling and consulting skills KPO is redefining the boundaries of outsourcing.

According to me, some of the major drivers were:

• BPO found a niche customer due to a huge demand in back office customer support. BPO was and is mainly successful due to costs effectiveness and the availability of cheap labor – it found a huge pool of workforce as the unemployment rate among English speaking graduates was very high. It created a perfect sector which could find an effective solution to all its workforce requirements among the huge pool of university English speaking graduates.

Slowly countries like India found that although BPO was exploiting the general mass of graduates yet another potential pool of qualified engineering, medical, legal, financial professionals was untapped. There was a clear synergy between the mid-level staff across various companies in US & European regions and this pool in India. Gradually it was realized that the mid-level staff which is mainly involved in offering knowledge based services can be replaced with the pool of talented professionals in countries like India at a much lower cost.

• We can say that BPO has slowly reached to a stagnant point as the factor of realization of using BPO services in new avenues is decreasing. OR we can quote unquote what most industry insiders feel - With the opening of the world economy, many surprises have taken place in the business scenario. This is true for countries across the globe both from outside and within the countries.

The western world has started realizing the potential and the importance of smaller countries of Asia in providing quality services at much lesser rates and are treating this fact as a revolution. Similarly, within the Asian countries revolutionary trends are taking place in terms of expansion and spread of service providers to small cities. BPO is giving place to a new name i.e. Knowledge Process Outsourcing (KPO).

Now coming to what could be the next stage of transformation: - According to NASSCOM, KPO is expected to reach $17 billion by 2010, of which $12 billion would be outsourced to India. In the future, it is envisaged that KPO has a high potential as it is not restricted only to IT or ITES sectors, and includes other sectors like Intellectual Property related services, Business Research & Analytics, LPOutsourcing, Web Dev. Application, CAD/CAM, Finance & Accounting Management, Clinical Research, Publishing, Market Research etc.

Taking into account the huge potential of intellectual property within India, I strongly feel that next stage of KPO could be a more evolved involvement ie Consulting. As of now, we are only creating the groundwork and consultants abroad use our findings to offer advisory services to their clients. In the next 2-3 years, India could become a One Stop Shop for research, analytics as well as Consulting and Advisory services. Hence future IT/ITES SMEs in India would evolve themselves as Consulting Companies.