Turmoil in financial markets, slower growth in high-income countries, and rising inflation have all adversely affected growth prospects for developing countries over the near term. Most countries have shown impressive resilience in this turbulent environment, and growth for developing countries as a group is expected to moderate from 7.8% in 2007 to a still strong 6.5% in 2008. However, vulnerable countries that depend on foreign capital flows are likely to experience a sharper slowdown. Moreover, despite strong production growth at the aggregate level, higher food and energy prices have caused real incomes to decline, significantly increasing the hardships faced by the very poor, particularly in urban centers.
A recent article in the Wall Street Journal noted that if one were to examine the historical performance of the S&P 500, one would find that the stock market is trading at the same level at which it was doing so nine years ago. Commodities markets, on the other hand, have been in a bull trend. Some of the major drivers that have contributed in this stupendous growth of commodity markets globally are
- Increasing influence of Asian demand, particularly from rapidly industrializing China and India
- Increase in commodities prices in international markets as a result of demand growth, reinforced by tight supply capacities, tense geopolitical conditions (especially with respect to the oil market) and intense speculative activity
- With the rise in prices of crude oil, metals and minerals, commodity prices reached record historical levels in nominal terms in 2006, which increased by more than 30% between 2005 and 2006 (and by 80% from 2000 to 2006).
- Numerous developing countries rely on commodities for export revenues, and commodity production and trade provide employment for more than 2.5 billion people worldwide.
- The considerable rise in prices has had an impact on incomes of developing countries. It is estimated that extra revenues resulting from commodity exports were around 6.7 percentage points of GDP for oil-exporting countries and about 3 percentage points for countries exporting mining products.
- Increases in demand from developing countries stimulated by a particularly vigorous commodity consumption per unit of GDP compared to that of developed countries, faster economic growth, and increasing population
- "Globalization" of securities and commodities markets
- Baby boomers are in the middle of their peak savings years and have been one of the major causes of huge inflows of money into the stock market and into mutual funds.
- The increased use of food crops for production of bio-fuels is an important factor that led to large increases in the prices of vegetable oils and grains in 2007, which in turn contributed to an overall 15 percent increase in the index of agricultural prices and a 20 percent rise in food prices.
- The prices of metals have increased more than other commodity prices over the last four years, largely because of an especially strong demand in China.
- Shortages of equipment and skilled workers have significantly increased development costs, and ore grades are deteriorating.
The report on “Indian Commodities Trading Market” offers an in-depth analysis of the Global Commodities Trading Market vis-à-vis the Indian Commodities Trading Market. It discusses the overall structure of the Global Commodities Market as well as Indian Commodities Market from an insider perspective and provides a comprehensive study on macro and micro factors driving the growth of this market.
The report furnishes up-to-date facts and figures following meticulous observation with an aim to provide you with real insights into the commodity trading market as it stands today; the knowledge one needs to stand out and make informed decisions. The expanse of such insights into the past and present scenario percolates down to every known commodity currently traded. A conscious effort has been made to provide an overview of all there is to know and know of in the volatile market whilst a detailed product-wise and segment-wise is used in conjunction to expand. Taking into account that Price and Risk being the key drivers of the market, the report presents an exclusive section which maps price growth trend behaviour, factors triggering such behaviour, tracking relative performance of commodities , effects on the market players directly or indirectly using composite indexes from leading sources, the use of various hedging tools such as forwards and options and the relative performance in comparison, the implication and significance of the various regulatory bodies, commissions and statutory acts to highlight a few.
Table of Contents
Section I: Commodities Trading – An Overview
1. How Commodities Market Evolved – Historical Perspective
2. How Commodities Trading Market Works
2.1 Involved Parties
2.2 Types of Contracts
2.3 Participants in derivative contracts
2.4 Trading Techniques in Commodities Market
2.4.1 Ready Delivery Market
2.4.2 Specific Delivery Market
2.4.3 Futures Market
2.4.4 Auction Market
2.5 Requirement & Benefits of Commodity Derivatives
Section II: Commodities Market – An Analysis
1. Global Commodities Market – An Overview
1.1 Commodities Trading vis-à-vis Role of Investment Banks
1.1.1 Barclays Capital Commodities - Profile
1.1.2 BNP Paribas Commodity Futures – Profile
1.1.3 Citi Global Commodities – Profile
1.1.4 DB Commodity Services LLC - Profile
1.1.5 Goldman Sachs Commodities – Profile
1.1.6 J.P. Morgan’s Global Commodities Group – Profile
1.1.7 Merrill Lynch Global Commodities (MLCI) - Profile
1.1.8 UBS's Commodities Group
1.2 Energy Trading vis-à-vis Energy Trading In-house Divisions
1.2.1 RBS Sempra Commodities
1.2.2 Chevron’s Supply & Trading
1.2.3 LITASCO (LUKOIL International Trading and Supply Company)
1.2.4 Koch Supply & Trading
1.2.5 AEP Energy Services (Subsidiary of American Electric Power Company, Inc.)
1.2.6 Duke Energy Trading and Marketing (DETM)
1.2.7 Shell Trading (US) Company
1.2.8 Reliant Energy Securities & Commodities Trading Center
1.3 Commodity ETFs and ETNs
1.4 Commodity Trading vis-à-vis Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs)
1.4.1 History of SWFs
1.4.2 Driving Factors, Issues, Trends & Opportunities
1.4.3 Sources of Capital
1.4.4 How & where the money is invested – Market Size & Projections
1.4.5 Fund Rankings: Largest Funds by Assets under Management
2. Global Commodities Market Analysis
2.1 Global Commodities Market Size & Forecast
2.2 Commodity Market Profiles – Quick Points (Profile, Producers, Consumers, Largest Markets, Price Performance & Top Companies)
2.2.1 Aluminium Market
2.2.2 Cocoa Market
2.2.3 Coffee Market
2.2.4 Copper Market
2.2.5 Cotton Market
2.2.6 Gold Market
2.2.7 Nickel Market
2.3 Global Commodities Indexes – Performance Analysis
2.3.1 Dow Jones - AIG Commodity Indices
2.3.2 Merrill Lynch Commodity index eXtra (MLCX)
2.3.3 S&P GSCI™ Composite Index
2.3.4 Reuters/Jefferies-CRB® Indices
3. Issues, Trends & Opportunities
3.1 Impact of higher commodity prices
3.2 Movement of oil prices
3.3 Performance of agriculture commodities
3.4 Companies turn to top derivatives dealers for help in hedging
3.5 Carbon to be the biggest global commodity market by 2012
3.6 Renewed interest from investors
3.7 More sophisticated tools & platforms
3.8 Investment banks are major players
3.9 ETFs, changing the equation of Commodities Investment
3.10 China – Major Demand Driver of Global Commodities
3.11 Macro-Economic Driving Factors
3.12 Factors affecting pricing of base metals
3.12.1 Lead (75% y-o-y growth)
3.12.2 Tin (66% y-o-y growth)
3.12.3 Zinc (40% y-o-y decline)
3.12.4 Nickel (4% y-o-y decline)
Section III: Indian Commodities Trading Market
1. Indian Commodities Market – An Overview
2. Indian Commodities Market Size – An Analysis
2.1 MCX vs. SENSEX – A Comparative Analysis
3. Indian Commodities Market – Performance Analysis
3.1 Aluminium Market – Future Contract Value (Jan 07 – Jul 08)
3.2 Coffee Market – Robusta Futures Contract Value (Jan 07 – Aug 08)
3.3 Copper Market – Copper Futures Contract Value (Jan 07 – Jul 08)
3.5 Crude Oil Market – Crude Oil Futures Contract Value (Jan 07 - Aug 08)
3.6 Gold Market – Futures Contract Value (Jan 07 – Aug 08)
3.7 Chana (Chickpea) Market – Futures Contract Value (Jan 07 – May 08)
3.8 Nickel Market – Futures Contract Value (Jan 07 – Jul 08)
3.9 Zinc Market – Futures Contract Value (Jan 07 – Jul 08)
3.10 Lead Market – Price Performance (Jan 07 – Aug 08)
3.11 Cardamom Market – Futures Contract Value (Jan 07 – Jul 08)
3.12 Jeera (Cumin Seed) Market – Futures Contract Value (Jan 07 – Jul 08)
3.13 Lead Market – Futures Contract Value (Jan 07 – Jul 08)
3.14 Mentha Oil Market – Futures Contract Value (Jan 07 – Jul 08)
3.15 Natural Gas Market – Futures Contract Value (Jan 07 – Jul 08)
4. Government Regulations, Initiatives and Reforms
4.1 Setting up a Committee on Role of Futures Trading in 1993
4.2 Setting up of Forward Market Commission in 1953
4.3 Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1952
4.4 Forward Contracts (Regulation) Amendment Bill, 2006
4.5 Forward Contracts (Regulation) Amendment Ordinance, 2008
4.6 Commodities Trading Tax
4.7 Import duty cut & export duty hike in Metals industry
5. Issues, Trends & Opportunities
5.1 Commodity Trends: Hurt by economic slowdown
5.2 Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) launched currency futures trading
5.2 Hedging ban a slow political process to kill futures market
5.3 Commodity investment goes retail
5.4 Unresolved Issues and Future Prospects
5.5 Scrap now being considered a waste commodity
5.6 Commodity and Equity Markets have been moving in tandem
5.7 Indian Bt Cotton to hit market soon
5.8 Warehousing to take giant leap in India
List of Charts
Chart 1: Mode of Financing in Commodities Trading
Chart 2: Business Operations Model of a Trading Process in a Commodity Exchange
Chart 3: SWFs Market Projections (2007-2012)
Chart 4: Comparison of AUM of SWFs and Asset Managers, Private Equity and Hedge Funds ($ billions)
Chart 5: Sovereign Wealth Fund Deal Volume (1997-2007)
Chart 6: Sector-wise growth: Exchange trade of commodity derivatives by volume (03-06)
Chart 7: World’s leading Commodity Exchanges in developing countries – 2006 Contracts ($millions)
Chart 8: Major base metal commodity exchanges & emerging markets
Chart 9: Base Metal Price Trend – 2006 vs. Present Price
Chart 10: Cocoa Monthly Averages of Daily Prices (Oct 07- Oct 08)
Chart 11: ICO Indicator Prices - Annual & Monthly Averages (1998 to 2008)
Chart 12: Global Cotton Average Price Trend ("A" Index (cents/pound)) – 1988 -2008
Chart 13: Merrill Lynch Commodity index eXtra (MLCX) - Commodity Weightings
Chart 14: MLCX Weights as of January 2008
Chart 15: MLCXTR outperformance vs. SPGCCITR & DJAIGTR
Chart 16: Reuters/Jefferies CRB® Total Return Index: Jan 82 – Sep 08 (monthly close)
Chart 17: Forecast of China's Share of the Growth in Demand for Global Commodities- 2009
Chart 18: Types of Commodities Traded in India
Chart 19: MCX vs. SENSEX – Comparative Analysis (Jan 06-Sep 08)
Chart 20: India's Aluminium Futures Contract in Value (Rs. Crore) (Jan 07 – Jul 08)
Chart 21: India's Coffee Robusta Futures Contract in Value (Rs. Lakhs) (Jan 07 – Aug 08)
Chart 22: India's Copper Futures Contract in Value (Rs. Crore)
Chart 23: India's Crude Oil Futures Contract in Value (Rs. Crore)
Chart 24: India's Gold (1Kg) Futures Contract in Value (Rs. Crore)
Chart 25: India's Gold (100g) Futures contract in Value (Rs. Crore)
Chart 26: India's Chana (Chickpea) Futures Contract in Value (Rs. Crore)
Chart 27: India's Nickel Futures Contract in Value (Rs. Crore)
Chart 28: India's Zinc Futures Contract in Value (Rs. Crore)
Chart 29: India's Lead Futures Contract in Value (Rs. Crore)
Chart 30: India's Cardamom Futures Contract in Value (Rs. Crore)
Chart 31: India's Jeera (Cumin Seed) Futures Contract in Value (Rs. Lakhs)
Chart 32: India's Lead Futures Contract in Value (Rs. Crore)
Chart 33: India's Mentha Oil Futures Contract in Value (Rs. Crore)
Chart 34: India's Natural Gas Futures Contract in Value (Rs. Crore)
List of Tables
Table 1: The Global Economic Outlook (2006-2010)
Table 2: Major Global Commodity Exchanges
Table 3: Major Asian Commodity Exchanges
Table 4: Major European Commodity Exchanges
Table 5: Commodity Traders – List of top banks, Financial Institutions & other top companies
Table 6: Fund Rankings: Largest Funds by Assets under Management
Table 7: Global Commodity Prices – Monthly & Yearly Averages (Jan 06 - Sep 08)
Table 8: Commodity Forecast Nominal Prices (2007-2020)
Table 9: World Cocoa Market Estimates (in million metric tons) – 2002-2008
Table 10: ICO Indicator Prices - Annual & Monthly Averages (1998 to 2008)
Table 11: Global Cotton Average Price Trend ("A" Index (cents/pound)) – 1988 -2008
Table 12: Comparison of Commodity Indexes
Table 13: Dow Jones AIG Total Return Performance %
Table 14: Dow Jones AIG Excess Return Performance %
Table 15: Dow Jones AIG Yearly Returns (1990-2008)
Table 16: DJGI AIG Commodity Index - Commodity Weightings
Table 17: Merrill Lynch Commodity index eXtra (MLCX) - Commodity Weightings
Table 18: S&P GSCI™ Components and Dollar Weights (%)
Table 19: S&P GSCI™ Index Values
Table 20: Commodity Exchanges in India
Table 21: Trend of Commodities in National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (Oct 08)
Table 22: Trend of Commodities in Multi Commodity Exchange of India (Oct 08)
Table 23: Trend of Metals in Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) and National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) (Oct 08)
Table 24: Trend of Oil Commodities traded in NYMEX (Oct 08)
Table 25: Trend of Metal commodities traded in NYMEX (Oct 08)
Pages: 186
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
N-deal spins off 100,000 new jobs
One of the spin offs of the India-U.S. civil nuclear deal coming through will be the creation of 100,000 new jobs for the 30-odd reactors that India hopes to set up to meet its nuclear power deadline of 20,000 MW by 2020, experts say. Congress MP Rahul Gandhi highlighted the fillip the deal is expected to give to employment generation and the energy sector. Interacting with students of Ravindra Bharati in Hyderabad on Saturday, Gandhi said: "The nuclear deal means millions and millions of jobs, and lights in the houses of the poor in this country."
Union Minister of State for Commerce and Power Jairam Ramesh, visiting the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE)'s Kalpakkam campus in Tamil Nadu, said: "Nearly 10,000 MW of nuclear power would be generated from indigenous reactors, 8,000 MW from light water reactors and 2,000 MW from Fast Breeder Reactors (FBR)."
Thousands of engineers, technicians and scientists would be needed to run these establishments, he underlined. "India's 17 nuclear reactors have the capacity to generate 4,120 MW, but in 2007 they could produce only 1,800 MW due to lack of fuel," Ramesh said. By 2020, India is likely to import six light water reactors while six nuclear plants are under construction to beef up generation capacity, said Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd Technical Director S.A. Bhardwaj. The total expansion is valued at nearly $300 billion.
"India's Department of Atomic Energy employs about 70,000 experts today," M.R. Srinivasan, former chairperson of the Atomic Energy Commission, told the media at a function in Kalpakkam. The new nuclear power plants on the cards are expected to create at least a 100,000 new jobs in India, experts say. Not just in India, the nuclear deal is expected to give a fillip to the industry in the US also.
In 2007, Ron Somers, president of the US-India Business Council, supporting the Indo-US Nuclear Cooperation Agreement, said: "The deal would create 27,000 high-quality jobs a year for the next 10 years in the US nuclear industry." To strengthen research at universities, the DAE is providing grants for projects through the Board of Research in Nuclear Sciences. The DAE Graduate Fellowship Scheme for the Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs) has been in place since 2002 to promote collaborative research through postgraduate students.
IIT-Kanpur offers a course in nuclear engineering and technology, now IIT-Madras has also decided to offer a similar course from the 2009 academic session. The country's premier institute for nuclear studies and research - The Homi Bhabha National Institute - will provide the necessary guides and teaching staff. India has two hubs for advanced studies in nuclear technology - Mumbai and Kalpakkam. The Mumbai-based Bhabha Institute unifies 10 institutions, four premier centres and six autonomous institutes, each with a research-driven framework.
Bhabha Institute also includes DAE's top research institute, The Bhabha Atomic Research Centre where old horses of the '80s, the Cirus and Dhruva reactors, are still kept going. DAE's other research institute is the Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR), which was set up in 1971.
"The IGCAR has an open door policy for any student keen on science," says institute director Baldev Raj."The IGCAR has tried to strike a balance between networking with institutions with expertise and collaborating with academia for harvesting fresh thoughts," he added. According to the Nuclear Energy Institute, 30 countries worldwide are operating 439 reactors for electricity generation and 34 new nuclear plants were under construction in 14 countries.
Sources: IANS and Silicon India
Union Minister of State for Commerce and Power Jairam Ramesh, visiting the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE)'s Kalpakkam campus in Tamil Nadu, said: "Nearly 10,000 MW of nuclear power would be generated from indigenous reactors, 8,000 MW from light water reactors and 2,000 MW from Fast Breeder Reactors (FBR)."
Thousands of engineers, technicians and scientists would be needed to run these establishments, he underlined. "India's 17 nuclear reactors have the capacity to generate 4,120 MW, but in 2007 they could produce only 1,800 MW due to lack of fuel," Ramesh said. By 2020, India is likely to import six light water reactors while six nuclear plants are under construction to beef up generation capacity, said Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd Technical Director S.A. Bhardwaj. The total expansion is valued at nearly $300 billion.
"India's Department of Atomic Energy employs about 70,000 experts today," M.R. Srinivasan, former chairperson of the Atomic Energy Commission, told the media at a function in Kalpakkam. The new nuclear power plants on the cards are expected to create at least a 100,000 new jobs in India, experts say. Not just in India, the nuclear deal is expected to give a fillip to the industry in the US also.
In 2007, Ron Somers, president of the US-India Business Council, supporting the Indo-US Nuclear Cooperation Agreement, said: "The deal would create 27,000 high-quality jobs a year for the next 10 years in the US nuclear industry." To strengthen research at universities, the DAE is providing grants for projects through the Board of Research in Nuclear Sciences. The DAE Graduate Fellowship Scheme for the Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs) has been in place since 2002 to promote collaborative research through postgraduate students.
IIT-Kanpur offers a course in nuclear engineering and technology, now IIT-Madras has also decided to offer a similar course from the 2009 academic session. The country's premier institute for nuclear studies and research - The Homi Bhabha National Institute - will provide the necessary guides and teaching staff. India has two hubs for advanced studies in nuclear technology - Mumbai and Kalpakkam. The Mumbai-based Bhabha Institute unifies 10 institutions, four premier centres and six autonomous institutes, each with a research-driven framework.
Bhabha Institute also includes DAE's top research institute, The Bhabha Atomic Research Centre where old horses of the '80s, the Cirus and Dhruva reactors, are still kept going. DAE's other research institute is the Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR), which was set up in 1971.
"The IGCAR has an open door policy for any student keen on science," says institute director Baldev Raj."The IGCAR has tried to strike a balance between networking with institutions with expertise and collaborating with academia for harvesting fresh thoughts," he added. According to the Nuclear Energy Institute, 30 countries worldwide are operating 439 reactors for electricity generation and 34 new nuclear plants were under construction in 14 countries.
Sources: IANS and Silicon India
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Strategic Initiatives of Credit Suisse in Eastern Europe
Traditionally Credit Suisse had seen the highest growth coming in the East, in countries like Russia and Kazakhstan and in some of the other Central Asian countries. Central Europe has grown a little bit more slowly and they are expecting that looking forward in 2007 and 2008 as well.
Area of focus for CSFB
The largest driver of growth within Central Europe is likely to be Poland where Credit Suisse is looking at a growth rate of up to 5.5 percent, or 6 percent. Poland is the area Credit Suisse is focused on in Central Europe. It’s a very deep and exciting equity market with a very diverse sector representation.
Which countries will underperform?
From a growth perspective, Credit Suisse is hoping Hungary will lag a bit behind this year on a growth perspective. That is mainly because CSFB sees the government making significant cuts in fiscal spending in order to achieve the Maastricht criteria target of less than 3 percent GDP budget deficit. It is likely that they will see less government spending in Hungary over the coming years. That is likely to have some impact on the growth rate in the country overall.
Difference in development between the two new EU members and the rest of the region
Rumania and Bulgaria are the newest EU members. They joined in January of 2007. They think these are very interesting countries for investment. Unfortunately, Credit Suisse had seen a pretty shallow equity market historically in these two countries. CSFB is anticipating some new IPOs over the coming year that will allow them to invest in both Rumania and Bulgaria in a more significant way going forward.
On Russia’s economic growth?
On the commodity side, Credit Suisse is quite bullish on commodity prices. They are expecting commodity prices to maintain the high levels that we’ve seen over the past few years. One of the most positive aspects of Russia is that Credit Suisse is really starting to see diversification in the economy. One of the biggest drivers across the region, and for Russia in particular, will be growth in consumption and growth in investment. The government is looking to spend a lot of money on infrastructure build over the coming years. Credit Suisse do see the growth of the Russian consumption being hugely important for the economy overall.
The oil, gas industry certainly is the major industrial sector within the Russian market. Credit Suisse is starting to see some new industries grow. They are hoping to see more IPOs in these areas, so they can participate in those growth areas of the market. An example would be the IT sector. Credit Suisse do see a fairly large IPO going on in the IT sector today. We could see some growth in that industry over time, so we are looking to tap into some of these opportunities.
Trends
The fragmentation of the $50 billion European fixed-income market illustrates the diversity of the competitive landscape. Today, 11 major global players have a share of just under 50% of the market, nine major regional players have 27 percent, and around 40 national players have just under a quarter. Each category includes highly profitable players. Profits come from the more value added products such as derivatives and hybrid securities and from regions such as Eastern Europe and the Middle East. As a result of intense competition, the core investment-grade bond business and other plain-vanilla product categories have wafer thin margins.
Another consequence of that competitive intensity has been the death of the sole adviser. Clients have many mouths to feed at payback time, after months or years of diligent coverage by the major firms. Consequently, big IPO and M&A deals typically involve a number of advisers. Inevitably, this arrangement puts even more pressure on the economics of banking.
The industry's radical transformation is likely to continue as major banks in Europe, as well as global banks that do business there, seek to build winning corporate- and investment- banking franchises. The bad news is that competition will intensify. The good news is that it will likely drive further innovation, spurring primary demand as more of Europe's financial-intermediation activity moves to the capital markets.
CSFB thinks most interesting sectors in the equity market today are the retail and consumption driven sectors. Retail stocks would be a place that is very interesting as well as infrastructure stocks. The main way Credit Suisse is looking at that theme is through the steel sector which is of course providing beams for some of the major road construction, some of the rail construction and a lot of the home buildings going on in the country.
According to CSFB, there are very few internal macroeconomic risks that could disrupt the long-term outlook for the markets. However, they do remain concerned about commodities. The equity markets are sensitive to commodities. So, any prolonged downside in the commodity prices certainly would be a negative for this region of the world. However, Credit Suisse expects that commodity prices will remain in relatively strong bands looking into the future.
Management reshuffle
Credit Suisse has reshuffled top-line management within parts of its European fixed-income capital markets business, following the decision of the bank's head of structuring to step down. The move announced in Jan 2007, spans three separate business areas and comes in direct response to Jeremy Bennett's decision to to take a sabbatical. As well as being the bank's head of structuring, Bennet is also co-head of European fixed-income capital markets and the emerging markets group.
As part of the reshuffle, Sudip Thakor takes over as head of the global structuring group in addition to his existing responsibilities as head of the fixed income derivatives product group in New York and co-head of the global credit trading business, which includes investment grade and emerging market credits.
Thakor is co-head of the global credit trading and sales business alongside Jonathan McHardy, who also runs the commodities business globally.
McHardy is now also solely responsible for managing the bank’s insurance and tax business, with Pedro Beroy and Larry Fletcher reporting to him directly. Credit Suisse’s European fixed income business was co-led by Bennett, but his departure now hands Gael de Boissard full control and responsibility for the London-based division.
Furthermore, the emerging markets group – one of the most lucrative revenue earning businesses within Credit Suisse’s fixed income division - is now being jointly run by Ram Nayak and Darren Walker. Nayak, who remains European head of commodities and co-head of fixed income for Eastern Europe , Middle East and Africa, reports directly to Thakor and McHardy.Nayak joins the bank’s fixed income operating committee with Walker, who holds on to his existing responsibilities for the EEMEA trading group that includes credit trading, credit derivatives and local currency trading.
Walker also reports directly to Thakor and McHardy. Bennett, who joined Credit Suisse First Boston as it was then known in 1997, has been one of the most important figureheads in carving out a new direction for Credit Suisse’s fixed income capital markets operations over the last three years.
Sources: Industry articles
Area of focus for CSFB
The largest driver of growth within Central Europe is likely to be Poland where Credit Suisse is looking at a growth rate of up to 5.5 percent, or 6 percent. Poland is the area Credit Suisse is focused on in Central Europe. It’s a very deep and exciting equity market with a very diverse sector representation.
Which countries will underperform?
From a growth perspective, Credit Suisse is hoping Hungary will lag a bit behind this year on a growth perspective. That is mainly because CSFB sees the government making significant cuts in fiscal spending in order to achieve the Maastricht criteria target of less than 3 percent GDP budget deficit. It is likely that they will see less government spending in Hungary over the coming years. That is likely to have some impact on the growth rate in the country overall.
Difference in development between the two new EU members and the rest of the region
Rumania and Bulgaria are the newest EU members. They joined in January of 2007. They think these are very interesting countries for investment. Unfortunately, Credit Suisse had seen a pretty shallow equity market historically in these two countries. CSFB is anticipating some new IPOs over the coming year that will allow them to invest in both Rumania and Bulgaria in a more significant way going forward.
On Russia’s economic growth?
On the commodity side, Credit Suisse is quite bullish on commodity prices. They are expecting commodity prices to maintain the high levels that we’ve seen over the past few years. One of the most positive aspects of Russia is that Credit Suisse is really starting to see diversification in the economy. One of the biggest drivers across the region, and for Russia in particular, will be growth in consumption and growth in investment. The government is looking to spend a lot of money on infrastructure build over the coming years. Credit Suisse do see the growth of the Russian consumption being hugely important for the economy overall.
The oil, gas industry certainly is the major industrial sector within the Russian market. Credit Suisse is starting to see some new industries grow. They are hoping to see more IPOs in these areas, so they can participate in those growth areas of the market. An example would be the IT sector. Credit Suisse do see a fairly large IPO going on in the IT sector today. We could see some growth in that industry over time, so we are looking to tap into some of these opportunities.
Trends
The fragmentation of the $50 billion European fixed-income market illustrates the diversity of the competitive landscape. Today, 11 major global players have a share of just under 50% of the market, nine major regional players have 27 percent, and around 40 national players have just under a quarter. Each category includes highly profitable players. Profits come from the more value added products such as derivatives and hybrid securities and from regions such as Eastern Europe and the Middle East. As a result of intense competition, the core investment-grade bond business and other plain-vanilla product categories have wafer thin margins.
Another consequence of that competitive intensity has been the death of the sole adviser. Clients have many mouths to feed at payback time, after months or years of diligent coverage by the major firms. Consequently, big IPO and M&A deals typically involve a number of advisers. Inevitably, this arrangement puts even more pressure on the economics of banking.
The industry's radical transformation is likely to continue as major banks in Europe, as well as global banks that do business there, seek to build winning corporate- and investment- banking franchises. The bad news is that competition will intensify. The good news is that it will likely drive further innovation, spurring primary demand as more of Europe's financial-intermediation activity moves to the capital markets.
CSFB thinks most interesting sectors in the equity market today are the retail and consumption driven sectors. Retail stocks would be a place that is very interesting as well as infrastructure stocks. The main way Credit Suisse is looking at that theme is through the steel sector which is of course providing beams for some of the major road construction, some of the rail construction and a lot of the home buildings going on in the country.
According to CSFB, there are very few internal macroeconomic risks that could disrupt the long-term outlook for the markets. However, they do remain concerned about commodities. The equity markets are sensitive to commodities. So, any prolonged downside in the commodity prices certainly would be a negative for this region of the world. However, Credit Suisse expects that commodity prices will remain in relatively strong bands looking into the future.
Management reshuffle
Credit Suisse has reshuffled top-line management within parts of its European fixed-income capital markets business, following the decision of the bank's head of structuring to step down. The move announced in Jan 2007, spans three separate business areas and comes in direct response to Jeremy Bennett's decision to to take a sabbatical. As well as being the bank's head of structuring, Bennet is also co-head of European fixed-income capital markets and the emerging markets group.
As part of the reshuffle, Sudip Thakor takes over as head of the global structuring group in addition to his existing responsibilities as head of the fixed income derivatives product group in New York and co-head of the global credit trading business, which includes investment grade and emerging market credits.
Thakor is co-head of the global credit trading and sales business alongside Jonathan McHardy, who also runs the commodities business globally.
McHardy is now also solely responsible for managing the bank’s insurance and tax business, with Pedro Beroy and Larry Fletcher reporting to him directly. Credit Suisse’s European fixed income business was co-led by Bennett, but his departure now hands Gael de Boissard full control and responsibility for the London-based division.
Furthermore, the emerging markets group – one of the most lucrative revenue earning businesses within Credit Suisse’s fixed income division - is now being jointly run by Ram Nayak and Darren Walker. Nayak, who remains European head of commodities and co-head of fixed income for Eastern Europe , Middle East and Africa, reports directly to Thakor and McHardy.Nayak joins the bank’s fixed income operating committee with Walker, who holds on to his existing responsibilities for the EEMEA trading group that includes credit trading, credit derivatives and local currency trading.
Walker also reports directly to Thakor and McHardy. Bennett, who joined Credit Suisse First Boston as it was then known in 1997, has been one of the most important figureheads in carving out a new direction for Credit Suisse’s fixed income capital markets operations over the last three years.
Sources: Industry articles
US Institutional Fixed Income Asset Management Industry
Market Size
# The U.S. fixed income market is one of the largest securities markets in the world with more than $29.2 trillion in outstanding debt according to SIFMA as of September 31, 2007.
# The average daily dollar value traded rose from $274.0 billion in 1996 to $508.9 billion in 2001 and $889.8 billion in 2006.
Market Segmentation
# The retail fixed income market accounts for approximately 70 percent of the total fixed income transactions and is expected to expand as 75+ million baby boomers enter retirement and begin shifting investment assets from growth to preservation strategies. Institutional fixed income market accounts for the remaining 30% of the total market share. (Source: Knight Capital Group, Inc.)
Institutional asset management industry has become an important feature of modern financial markets, with the scale of this business’s importance readily apparent from the size of assets under management by different types of institutional asset managers. The growth of the professional asset management industry has been a key feature of the structural changes in the international financial system, a development with implications for many different aspects of the financial landscape - market turnover, securities issuance, international capital flows, market stability, industrial organization and corporate governance. A wide variety of institutional investors, with professional asset managers, has emerged - pension funds, insurance companies (life and non-life), and investment companies (of all kinds).
Market Trends
The sources of profitability & growth in the industry are shifting rapidly as evidenced by the following major trends:
=> With asset management involving a delegation process, shaping appropriate incentive structures is essential for aligning the incentives of owners of funds with those of the institutional managers of these funds.
=> As the industry is still regarded as an evolving business, its strong recent growth is expected to continue well into the foreseeable future. As a result, structural changes in the industry, to the extent that they affect asset managers’ incentives, are likely to have their effect on their decision-making and, possibly, market outcomes. Ongoing industry trends have therefore an obvious potential to change institutional investor behaviour in ways that can be important for global financial markets.
=> Traditional products are now trapped in a vise-like squeeze, with higher alpha and "cheap beta" products again capturing almost all asset growth;
=> The most successful traditional firms dramatically grew both their revenues and profits from alternatives, with these products now accounting for more than one-third of institutional revenues – up from almost nothing only five years ago;
=> As a result of both these trends, retail and institutional net prices have now almost fully converged, with major implications for client segment attractiveness;
=> The defined benefit market is far from dead, but flows are undergoing a radical shift, with higher-alpha, fixed income and cheap beta products the main sources of growth.
Consequences
While the industry overall remains highly profitable, firms that are unable to adapt to these changes will have a hard time maintaining future growth and profitability. Indeed, a direct consequence of the shifting sands of growth and profitability is that most firms continue to struggle to gain real operating leverage.
=> Even in this rapidly moving environment, the effective use of scale remains the dominant characteristic of the most successful asset management firms. Players pursuing any one of three "winning" business models – at-scale, multi boutique and focused-asset players – remain almost twice as profitable as those that do not. Moreover, firms following these models appear better positioned than their peers to adapt to the shifting sources of industry growth and profitability.
=> These rapid industry shifts pose a real challenge for firms' middle and back offices. Indeed, operations and technology have taken on a new strategic imperative, in particular around innovation, customer service, and efficiency; with leading asset managers already recognizing that the payoff for aggressively managing O&T has never been more compelling than it is today.
=> Broadening array of asset classes: The rise in professionally managed assets, both in absolute terms and as a share of overall financial wealth, was complemented by rising interest in non-core markets and, recently, some growth in funds placed with unregulated asset managers.
Sources: McKinsey and CGFS
# The U.S. fixed income market is one of the largest securities markets in the world with more than $29.2 trillion in outstanding debt according to SIFMA as of September 31, 2007.
# The average daily dollar value traded rose from $274.0 billion in 1996 to $508.9 billion in 2001 and $889.8 billion in 2006.
Market Segmentation
# The retail fixed income market accounts for approximately 70 percent of the total fixed income transactions and is expected to expand as 75+ million baby boomers enter retirement and begin shifting investment assets from growth to preservation strategies. Institutional fixed income market accounts for the remaining 30% of the total market share. (Source: Knight Capital Group, Inc.)
Institutional asset management industry has become an important feature of modern financial markets, with the scale of this business’s importance readily apparent from the size of assets under management by different types of institutional asset managers. The growth of the professional asset management industry has been a key feature of the structural changes in the international financial system, a development with implications for many different aspects of the financial landscape - market turnover, securities issuance, international capital flows, market stability, industrial organization and corporate governance. A wide variety of institutional investors, with professional asset managers, has emerged - pension funds, insurance companies (life and non-life), and investment companies (of all kinds).
Market Trends
The sources of profitability & growth in the industry are shifting rapidly as evidenced by the following major trends:
=> With asset management involving a delegation process, shaping appropriate incentive structures is essential for aligning the incentives of owners of funds with those of the institutional managers of these funds.
=> As the industry is still regarded as an evolving business, its strong recent growth is expected to continue well into the foreseeable future. As a result, structural changes in the industry, to the extent that they affect asset managers’ incentives, are likely to have their effect on their decision-making and, possibly, market outcomes. Ongoing industry trends have therefore an obvious potential to change institutional investor behaviour in ways that can be important for global financial markets.
=> Traditional products are now trapped in a vise-like squeeze, with higher alpha and "cheap beta" products again capturing almost all asset growth;
=> The most successful traditional firms dramatically grew both their revenues and profits from alternatives, with these products now accounting for more than one-third of institutional revenues – up from almost nothing only five years ago;
=> As a result of both these trends, retail and institutional net prices have now almost fully converged, with major implications for client segment attractiveness;
=> The defined benefit market is far from dead, but flows are undergoing a radical shift, with higher-alpha, fixed income and cheap beta products the main sources of growth.
Consequences
While the industry overall remains highly profitable, firms that are unable to adapt to these changes will have a hard time maintaining future growth and profitability. Indeed, a direct consequence of the shifting sands of growth and profitability is that most firms continue to struggle to gain real operating leverage.
=> Even in this rapidly moving environment, the effective use of scale remains the dominant characteristic of the most successful asset management firms. Players pursuing any one of three "winning" business models – at-scale, multi boutique and focused-asset players – remain almost twice as profitable as those that do not. Moreover, firms following these models appear better positioned than their peers to adapt to the shifting sources of industry growth and profitability.
=> These rapid industry shifts pose a real challenge for firms' middle and back offices. Indeed, operations and technology have taken on a new strategic imperative, in particular around innovation, customer service, and efficiency; with leading asset managers already recognizing that the payoff for aggressively managing O&T has never been more compelling than it is today.
=> Broadening array of asset classes: The rise in professionally managed assets, both in absolute terms and as a share of overall financial wealth, was complemented by rising interest in non-core markets and, recently, some growth in funds placed with unregulated asset managers.
Sources: McKinsey and CGFS
Sunday, July 6, 2008
Commodity market to reach $1.73 trillion by 2010: Assocham
The Indian commodity market is expected to grow by 30 percent and will reach Rs.74,156 billion ($1.73 trillion) in volume by 2010, according to a study by the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (Assocham). Assocham found that the Indian commodity market expanded 50 times in a span of five years from Rs.665.3 billion in 2002 to Rs.33,753 billion in 2007 as people's participation in such trade continued to grow. "The growth in commodities derivatives trading would now grow by about 30 percent to reach a projected level of Rs.74,156 billion in the next two years," said Assocham president Sajjan Jindal.
The turnover in proportion to GDP of commodity trade increased from 4.7 percent in 2004 to 20 percent in 2007 and is expected to go up many-fold since commodity markets would remain friendly to subscribers. "The daily average volume of trade in commodities exchanges by December 2007 was over Rs.120 billion," said Jindal.
"Gold, silver and crude recorded the highest turnover in Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) while in National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd (NCDEX), soya oil, guar seed and soyabean and in NMCE pepper, rubber and raw jute were the most actively traded commodities on an average. This trend is likely to continue," he added. The study points out that futures trading in commodities results in transparent and fair price discovery on account of large-scale participation of entities associated with different value chains.
It also noted that Indian commodity exchanges are still at a nascent stage of development as there are numerous bottlenecks hampering their growth. "Some of the major problems associated with commodity markets in India include infrastructure, trading system, broking community, controlled market, integration of regional and national exchanges and integration of spot and futures markets," the study said.
To attract active traders to commodity futures, the regulatory authority needs to introduce a more stringent code of conduct in setting standards for brokers, imposing capital adequacy norms and defining qualification criteria, it noted.
For a vibrant futures market, it is imperative that commodity pricing be left to market forces, without monopolistic government control. However, in India, scores of commodities in which futures trading is permitted are still protected under the Essential Commodity Act, 1955. The integration of the spot and futures market is another critical factor for the expansion of the commodity futures market in India. The state governments largely control the spot market in commodities, the study said. The institutional and policy-level issues associated with commodity exchanges have to be addressed by the government in coordination with the Forward Markets Commission in order to take necessary measures to pave the way for a significant expansion and further development of the commodity futures markets, Assocham stressed.
Sources: ASSOCHAM, Silicon India and PTI
The turnover in proportion to GDP of commodity trade increased from 4.7 percent in 2004 to 20 percent in 2007 and is expected to go up many-fold since commodity markets would remain friendly to subscribers. "The daily average volume of trade in commodities exchanges by December 2007 was over Rs.120 billion," said Jindal.
"Gold, silver and crude recorded the highest turnover in Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) while in National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd (NCDEX), soya oil, guar seed and soyabean and in NMCE pepper, rubber and raw jute were the most actively traded commodities on an average. This trend is likely to continue," he added. The study points out that futures trading in commodities results in transparent and fair price discovery on account of large-scale participation of entities associated with different value chains.
It also noted that Indian commodity exchanges are still at a nascent stage of development as there are numerous bottlenecks hampering their growth. "Some of the major problems associated with commodity markets in India include infrastructure, trading system, broking community, controlled market, integration of regional and national exchanges and integration of spot and futures markets," the study said.
To attract active traders to commodity futures, the regulatory authority needs to introduce a more stringent code of conduct in setting standards for brokers, imposing capital adequacy norms and defining qualification criteria, it noted.
For a vibrant futures market, it is imperative that commodity pricing be left to market forces, without monopolistic government control. However, in India, scores of commodities in which futures trading is permitted are still protected under the Essential Commodity Act, 1955. The integration of the spot and futures market is another critical factor for the expansion of the commodity futures market in India. The state governments largely control the spot market in commodities, the study said. The institutional and policy-level issues associated with commodity exchanges have to be addressed by the government in coordination with the Forward Markets Commission in order to take necessary measures to pave the way for a significant expansion and further development of the commodity futures markets, Assocham stressed.
Sources: ASSOCHAM, Silicon India and PTI
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Indian Telecom Market
Market Penetration
Every one in four Indians has a phone now, thanks to the scorching pace at which the burgeoning telecom services sector grew in the last fiscal, says an annual survey. With the total wireless subscriber base crossing 261 million as on March 31, wireless connectivity forms 22 percent of the total tele-density at 25 percent across the country, the survey adds. The annual survey by Voice and Data of CyberMedia group revealed that the Indian telecom subscriber base zoomed by 66 percent year-on-year (YoY) in the fiscal under review over the previous year.
"A booming economy, easing of entry barriers and lowering of tariffs fuelled the growth in FY 2008, with 104 million new subscribers getting connected and making India the second fastest growing telecom market in the world," CyberMedia publisher Prasanto K. Roy said Tuesday, citing the survey findings. The trigger for rapid telecom service growth was the revolutionary telecom policies of the present United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and the previous National Democratic Alliance (NDA) governments, resulting in affordable connectivity to a common man.
""With India's telecom tariffs still the lowest in the world, there's enormous and sustained growth beyond the metros. So telcos see huge opportunity in the three-fourths of Indians still untouched by the mobile phone revolution," Roy noted. Thriving in the growing market, the Indian telecom services industry generated Rs.1,306 billion ($31 billion) in 2007-08, registering 21.3 percent growth. Mobile, fixed line, national long distance (NLD), ILD, broadband, VSAT (very small aperture terminal) and radio-trunking constitute the telecom services industry. Growing at 36.4 percent YoY, revenue from mobile service increased to Rs. 766 billion from Rs. 562 billion in the previous fiscal (FY 2007).
Majority of new mobile subscribers is from towns and villages with less than 200,000 population. The mobile network covers about 50 percent of the 600,000 towns and villages across the country. The top five service providers vie for a larger share of the growing telecom pie. State-run BSNL (Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd) leads the pack with Rs.353 billion despite 12 percent decline from the previous fiscal," Roy pointed out.
BSNL is followed by Bharti Airtel, with Rs.264 billion, Reliance Communications Rs.186 billion and Vodafone Rs.155 billion, respectively. The top five operators based on cellular subscriber base are Bharti (62 million), Reliance (46 million), Vodafone (44 million), BSNL (41 million) and Idea cellular (24 million).
Prospects (Source: Gartner)
Total cellular services revenue in India is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18 percent from 2008-2012 to exceed US$37 billion, according to Gartner, Inc. The India mobile subscriber base is set to exceed 737 million connections by 2012 growing at a CAGR of 21 percent in the same period. This growth is poised to continue through the forecast period, and India is expected to remain the world’s second largest wireless market after China in terms of mobile connections.
“The growth in the mobile subscriber base is on the back of a rapidly proliferating rural market, lower handset costs, and low tariff rates in the Indian market,” said Madhusudan Gupta, senior research analyst at Gartner. “Rural telephony will continue to trigger growth and is expected to grow fourfold during the forecast period. Call rates have further dropped to about 1.5 cents per minute narrowing the gap with fixed-line rates. These factors along with an increasing competitive landscape will fuel market growth and encourage the adoption of wireless services in the rural and semi urban provinces of India.”
Cellular market penetration is projected to increase from 19.8 percent in 2007 to 60.7 percent in 2012. Gartner analysts said this growth could be primarily attributed to the increasing focus on the rural market, local consumer durable and electronic companies entering the domestic mobile handset segment, and lower handset prices. Vendors will continue to focus on sub-25$ handsets to capture market share.
The Indian mobile connection market continues to be dominated by prepaid subscribers. Prepaid connections accounted for more than 89 percent of all mobile connections in 2007 and are expected to grow to more than 92 percent of the connection base by 2012. The total services revenue for prepaid connections is expected to grow at 18.9 percent CAGR for the period 2008 - 2012 and the total services revenue for postpaid connections is expected to grow at 15 percent CAGR during the same forecast period. By 2012, the prepaid subscriber base will cross 683 million and postpaid subscriber base will exceed 53 million subscribers. The churn rate in India is 41.0 percent (2008), and despite a maturing market the ratio is expected to go up to 49 percent in 2012.
Revenues – Data revenues driving growth
The revenues from data services will significantly contribute to the growth of overall cellular services revenue in India, with a CAGR of 26.3 percent in the forecast period.
Prepaid subscribers are expected to adopt data services faster than the post-paid segment. Data revenues for the prepaid segment are projected to grow at 29 percent CAGR during the forecast period as compared to 22 percent CAGR for the post paid subscribers during the same period.
The bulk of the revenues will continue to come from voice revenues. However, with the increased growth in data services, the percentage of revenues coming from voice will reduce from 89 percent in 2007 to 85 percent in 2012.
Expected changes in the Indian Telecom landscape
According to Gartner, the industry will witness several changes in the coming year that could revolutionize the face of the telecom industry with the introduction of new technologies such as WiMAX, 3G and Mobile Number Portability (MNP). India will move to its next phase of evolution with the commercial launch of WiMAX by 1Q09 and 3G by 2Q09. With the introduction of MNP in 2008, churn rates are not expected to rise significantly, as India continues to be a prepaid dominated market.
“The Indian wireless market is a vibrant, price-sensitive and high-growth market,” Mr. Gupta said. “With 14 telecom service operators already present and another two set to join, the Indian telecom industry is expected to see some level of M&A activity in 2009. Given the high level of competition and anticipated consolidation, different business models will emerge that could push tariffs further down, with Indian mobile service consumers set to emerge as the biggest beneficiaries.”
Rural India will wrest 40 percent of new telecom market
India's rural telecom connectivity is poised for explosive growth in the next five to 10 years, grabbing a 40 percent share of the new market, a study released in July 08 said. "Of the estimated new 250 million Indian wireless users, in next 5-10 years approximately 100 million will be from rural areas," said the study by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Ficci) and Ernst and Young.
The paper said operators have demonstrated they can achieve profitability by reducing fixed costs, controlling variable costs and carefully tailoring services to the requirements of their customers. A similar model with minor customization could be emulated in the rural areas, it said. The government will likely phase out the Access Deficit Charge (ADC) - a levy imposed on private players in rural areas - and roll out new incentives for mobile networks in rural India, the report said. Passive infrastructure sharing and spectrum hoarding cess on defaulter operators who fail to meet their roll-out obligations are illustrations of proactive government initiative, it observed.
"Erecting wireless telecom towers in India's tough rural terrain is still expensive and logistically challenging, reinforcing the desirability of sharing," the paper said. The paper also noted that the ultra-low cost handset of approximately Rs.840 ($20) to the market with built-in subsidies, lifetime validity and minimal maintenance costs have promoted mobile usage in remote areas. Moreover, operators could learn from business models that have been experimented across the developing world for expanding rural connectivity.
Source: Moneycontrol.com, Silicon India and IANS
Every one in four Indians has a phone now, thanks to the scorching pace at which the burgeoning telecom services sector grew in the last fiscal, says an annual survey. With the total wireless subscriber base crossing 261 million as on March 31, wireless connectivity forms 22 percent of the total tele-density at 25 percent across the country, the survey adds. The annual survey by Voice and Data of CyberMedia group revealed that the Indian telecom subscriber base zoomed by 66 percent year-on-year (YoY) in the fiscal under review over the previous year.
"A booming economy, easing of entry barriers and lowering of tariffs fuelled the growth in FY 2008, with 104 million new subscribers getting connected and making India the second fastest growing telecom market in the world," CyberMedia publisher Prasanto K. Roy said Tuesday, citing the survey findings. The trigger for rapid telecom service growth was the revolutionary telecom policies of the present United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and the previous National Democratic Alliance (NDA) governments, resulting in affordable connectivity to a common man.
""With India's telecom tariffs still the lowest in the world, there's enormous and sustained growth beyond the metros. So telcos see huge opportunity in the three-fourths of Indians still untouched by the mobile phone revolution," Roy noted. Thriving in the growing market, the Indian telecom services industry generated Rs.1,306 billion ($31 billion) in 2007-08, registering 21.3 percent growth. Mobile, fixed line, national long distance (NLD), ILD, broadband, VSAT (very small aperture terminal) and radio-trunking constitute the telecom services industry. Growing at 36.4 percent YoY, revenue from mobile service increased to Rs. 766 billion from Rs. 562 billion in the previous fiscal (FY 2007).
Majority of new mobile subscribers is from towns and villages with less than 200,000 population. The mobile network covers about 50 percent of the 600,000 towns and villages across the country. The top five service providers vie for a larger share of the growing telecom pie. State-run BSNL (Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd) leads the pack with Rs.353 billion despite 12 percent decline from the previous fiscal," Roy pointed out.
BSNL is followed by Bharti Airtel, with Rs.264 billion, Reliance Communications Rs.186 billion and Vodafone Rs.155 billion, respectively. The top five operators based on cellular subscriber base are Bharti (62 million), Reliance (46 million), Vodafone (44 million), BSNL (41 million) and Idea cellular (24 million).
Prospects (Source: Gartner)
Total cellular services revenue in India is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18 percent from 2008-2012 to exceed US$37 billion, according to Gartner, Inc. The India mobile subscriber base is set to exceed 737 million connections by 2012 growing at a CAGR of 21 percent in the same period. This growth is poised to continue through the forecast period, and India is expected to remain the world’s second largest wireless market after China in terms of mobile connections.
“The growth in the mobile subscriber base is on the back of a rapidly proliferating rural market, lower handset costs, and low tariff rates in the Indian market,” said Madhusudan Gupta, senior research analyst at Gartner. “Rural telephony will continue to trigger growth and is expected to grow fourfold during the forecast period. Call rates have further dropped to about 1.5 cents per minute narrowing the gap with fixed-line rates. These factors along with an increasing competitive landscape will fuel market growth and encourage the adoption of wireless services in the rural and semi urban provinces of India.”
Cellular market penetration is projected to increase from 19.8 percent in 2007 to 60.7 percent in 2012. Gartner analysts said this growth could be primarily attributed to the increasing focus on the rural market, local consumer durable and electronic companies entering the domestic mobile handset segment, and lower handset prices. Vendors will continue to focus on sub-25$ handsets to capture market share.
The Indian mobile connection market continues to be dominated by prepaid subscribers. Prepaid connections accounted for more than 89 percent of all mobile connections in 2007 and are expected to grow to more than 92 percent of the connection base by 2012. The total services revenue for prepaid connections is expected to grow at 18.9 percent CAGR for the period 2008 - 2012 and the total services revenue for postpaid connections is expected to grow at 15 percent CAGR during the same forecast period. By 2012, the prepaid subscriber base will cross 683 million and postpaid subscriber base will exceed 53 million subscribers. The churn rate in India is 41.0 percent (2008), and despite a maturing market the ratio is expected to go up to 49 percent in 2012.
Revenues – Data revenues driving growth
The revenues from data services will significantly contribute to the growth of overall cellular services revenue in India, with a CAGR of 26.3 percent in the forecast period.
Prepaid subscribers are expected to adopt data services faster than the post-paid segment. Data revenues for the prepaid segment are projected to grow at 29 percent CAGR during the forecast period as compared to 22 percent CAGR for the post paid subscribers during the same period.
The bulk of the revenues will continue to come from voice revenues. However, with the increased growth in data services, the percentage of revenues coming from voice will reduce from 89 percent in 2007 to 85 percent in 2012.
Expected changes in the Indian Telecom landscape
According to Gartner, the industry will witness several changes in the coming year that could revolutionize the face of the telecom industry with the introduction of new technologies such as WiMAX, 3G and Mobile Number Portability (MNP). India will move to its next phase of evolution with the commercial launch of WiMAX by 1Q09 and 3G by 2Q09. With the introduction of MNP in 2008, churn rates are not expected to rise significantly, as India continues to be a prepaid dominated market.
“The Indian wireless market is a vibrant, price-sensitive and high-growth market,” Mr. Gupta said. “With 14 telecom service operators already present and another two set to join, the Indian telecom industry is expected to see some level of M&A activity in 2009. Given the high level of competition and anticipated consolidation, different business models will emerge that could push tariffs further down, with Indian mobile service consumers set to emerge as the biggest beneficiaries.”
Rural India will wrest 40 percent of new telecom market
India's rural telecom connectivity is poised for explosive growth in the next five to 10 years, grabbing a 40 percent share of the new market, a study released in July 08 said. "Of the estimated new 250 million Indian wireless users, in next 5-10 years approximately 100 million will be from rural areas," said the study by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Ficci) and Ernst and Young.
The paper said operators have demonstrated they can achieve profitability by reducing fixed costs, controlling variable costs and carefully tailoring services to the requirements of their customers. A similar model with minor customization could be emulated in the rural areas, it said. The government will likely phase out the Access Deficit Charge (ADC) - a levy imposed on private players in rural areas - and roll out new incentives for mobile networks in rural India, the report said. Passive infrastructure sharing and spectrum hoarding cess on defaulter operators who fail to meet their roll-out obligations are illustrations of proactive government initiative, it observed.
"Erecting wireless telecom towers in India's tough rural terrain is still expensive and logistically challenging, reinforcing the desirability of sharing," the paper said. The paper also noted that the ultra-low cost handset of approximately Rs.840 ($20) to the market with built-in subsidies, lifetime validity and minimal maintenance costs have promoted mobile usage in remote areas. Moreover, operators could learn from business models that have been experimented across the developing world for expanding rural connectivity.
Source: Moneycontrol.com, Silicon India and IANS
China - The Insurance Giant in Asia-Pac
Authors: Nishith Srivastava & Akash Rakyan
China has been the fastest-growing nation for the past quarter of a century with an average annual GDP growth rate above 10%. Chinese economy is the 4th largest in the world after the US, Japan and Germany, with a nominal GDP of US$3.42 trillion (2007) when measured in exchange-rate terms.
China is the world’s largest untapped insurance market. With GDP growth of over 10% per annum, rapid economic development and a burgeoning consumer class, China has the potential to become one of the world’s most significant insurance markets. Driven by a variety of demographic, economic and regulatory factors, this growth should continue at a solid pace for the foreseeable future. As of late 2004, China was fully compliant with its WTO insurance-related accession provisions, giving foreign firms greater market access. While domestic players dominate the market, foreign insurers are gradually attaining greater market share. Challenges remain, however, and include an overall lack of management talent, unsophisticated consumers, poor distribution channels and non-transparent regulatory approval processes.
Several factors are responsible for this astounding level of growth. Some of the most noticeable ones are China’s aging population; high savings rate and poor social security systems as well as an increasing number of wealthy consumers segment that is spurring growth in the property and casualty, auto and health insurance sectors. Compared to its regional peers, the Chinese market is still substantially smaller than Japan and marginally smaller than South Korea. It is, however, the fastest-growing market in both absolute and relative terms, growing by $61.17 billion and 169.63% between 2002 and 2007. This rapid development of the Chinese insurance market is driven by economic growth, but premium growth has outstripped economic growth consistently over the past five years.
In 1996, total premium .i.e. life insurance and non-life insurance combined was $12.84 billion and in 2007, it was estimated to be $97.23 billion. Between 1996 and 2007, Chinese Insurance sector experienced a CAGR of approximately 20.21%. Between 1996 and 2000, life segment had an increase of $13.11 billion from $7.14 billion to $18.56 billion and between 2002 and 2007, an increase of $37.47 billion from $24.26 billion in 2002 to $61.73 billion. We forecast that life insurance premiums in 2011 will be $108.12 billion. In non-life segment, between 1996 and 2007, a growth of $29.80 billion was seen from $5.70 billion in 1996 and $35.50 billion in 2007. It is expected that non-life premiums in 2011 will be $64.37 billion.
Major Driving Factors
=> Variety of demographic, economic and regulatory factors
=> Demand from Commercial Property Segment
=> Increased risk awareness and demand for sophisticated products
=> Improved expertise of local insurers
=> Guarantee rate reform and many other....
Major Trends & Issues
=> Foreign entrants facing ownership restrictions with respect to joint ventures
=> Regulatory obstacles for foreign companies
=> Use of bank channels by insurance companies to reach out to consumers in non-urban areas.
=> Customer loyalty in China’s insurance market is very thin, and customers are easily poached.
=> The State Council having recently cleared the way for banks to invest in established insurance companies on a pilot basis
=> Focus from price competition has shifted to developing new products and expanding the overall size of the insurance market
=> Low penetration as a result of low customer awareness
=> Need of further capacity and expertise in specialist areas such as MAT, energy, liability insurance
=> And many other....
Emerging Areas
=> Longer-term foreign exchange life insurance policies
=> Cross-sector investment (e.g., investment in banks), and an expansion of investment classifications (asset-backed securities, property, industry funds, offshore markets, etc.) for insurers.
=> Development of a Stock Broker Market
=> Growth of domestic reinsurance capacity
=> And many other....
As per China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) as of June 30, 2006, there were around 100 insurance companies in China. Out of these 100 companies, there were 56 domestic insurance companies and 44 foreign insurance companies. Domestic insurance companies had a market share of approximately 93.3% and the remaining 6.7% was controlled by the foreign insurance companies. The entire market is quite fragmented and most of these 56 domestic insurance companies are region-centric and are strong in their respective markets. The largest foreign companies are AIU (a subsidiary of AIG), Tokio Marine, and Mitsui Somitomo. As new players have entered the market, competition has intensified significantly, as the existing players fight to maintain their market share.
Topics covered in the report
=> Trend analysis of Chinese economy & macroeconomic factors contributing to the growth of the sector
=> China’s position in the context of emerging countries
=> Historical growth trends & growth drivers of Insurance & its sub-sectors in China and outlook till 2011.
=> Market size of insurance sector (total, life & non-life) since 2000 till 2007
=> Market forecast of insurance sector (total, life & non-life) between 2007 and 2011
=> Government policies, initiatives, regulations and problems faced by foreign insurers
=> Key issues & challenges, major trends & opportunities
=> Role of stock brokers, banks, domestic reinsurance and bancassurance segments
=> Industry and markets with best prospects for insurance products
=> Government’s initiatives to promote & regulate the insurance market
=> Competitive landscape and market share of top players
=> And many more...
Table of Contents
METHODOLOGY & RESEARCH APPROACH
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. CHINA
1.1. CHINESE ECONOMY
1.1.1. Macroeconomic trends
1.2. GOVERNMENT POLICIES
1.2.1. Three-Step Regional Development Strategy
1.2.2. The 11th Five-Year Program (2006-2010)
1.2.3. Development of Energy-Efficient Society
2. CHINESE INSURANCE SECTOR
2.1. MARKET OVERVIEW
2.1.1. Insurance Sector vs. Macro-Economic Factors
2.1.2. Market Constituents
2.2. MARKET PERFORMANCE & FORECAST (1996-2011)
2.2.1. Chinese Insurance Market
2.2.1.1. Chinese Life Insurance Market
2.2.1.2. Chinese Non-Life Insurance Market
2.3. TRENDS, ISSUES AND OPPORTUNITIES – AN ANALYSIS
2.3.1. Demand from Commercial Property Segment
2.3.2. Increasing Population and Prospective Buyers
2.3.3. Middle-men or Broker Market
2.3.4. Entry of Banks
2.3.5. Increasing risk awareness & demand for innovative products
2.3.6. Guarantee rate reform
2.3.7. Development of domestic reinsurance markets
2.3.8. Regulatory obstacles
2.3.9. Other major issues & trends
2.4. GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS
2.5. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
2.5.1. Market Segmentation
2.5.1.1. Competition in Life Insurance Sector
2.5.1.2. Competition in Non-Life Insurance Sector
2.5.2. Driving Factors
2.5.3. Company Profiles
2.5.3.1. China Life Insurance Company Limited
2.5.3.2. China Pacific
2.5.3.3. Ping An
2.5.3.4. New China Life
Pages: 82; Format: PDF
List of Charts
Chart 1: China’s GDP Growth (1952-2005)
Chart 2: Macroeconomic Data & Factors
Chart 3: Total Premium Growth vs. GDP Growth (%) – 1996-2007e
Chart 4: Growth (%): Life vs. Non-Life vs. Total Premium vs. GDP (%) – 1996-2008f
Chart 5: Chinese Insurance Market: Segment Share
Chart 6: China Insurance Market Value ($billion): 2000-2007e
Chart 7: China Insurance Market Value Forecast ($ billion): 2008-2011f
Chart 8: Growth Trend of Life Insurance and Non-Life Insurance ($billion): 1996-2007e
Chart 9: GDP Growth vs. Total Premium Growth vs. Life Insurance Growth (%) – 1996-2007e
Chart 10: Life Insurance Market in China: 1996-2007e ($ billions)
Chart 11: Life Insurance Market in China: Forecast 2007-2011f ($billions)
Chart 12: GDP Growth vs. Total Premium Growth vs. Non-life Insurance Growth (%) – 1996-2008f
Chart 13: Sub-sector share of Non-life Insurance Market in China
Chart 14: Non-life Insurance Market in China: 1996-2007e ($ billions)
Chart 15: Non-life Insurance Market in China: Forecast 2007-2011f ($billions)
Chart 16: Market Share of Top 3 Domestic Life Insurance Companies
Chart 17: Market Share of Non-life Insurance Companies in China
Chart 18: Market Share of Reinsurers in China (2006)
List of Tables
Table 1: Macroeconomic Data & Factors
Table 2: Chinese GDP vs. US Dollar exchange vs. Inflation Index
Table 3: Total Premium Growth & GDP Growth (%) – 1996-2007e
Table 4: Growth (%): Life vs. Non-Life vs. Total Premium vs. GDP (%) – 1996-2008f
Table 5: China Insurance Market Value & Forecast ($ billion): 1996-2011f
Table 6: Growth Trend of Life Insurance and Non-Life Insurance ($billion): 1996-2007e
Table 7: GDP Growth vs. Total Premium Growth vs. Life Insurance Growth (%) – 1996-2007e
Table 8: Life Insurance Market in China: 1996-2007 ($ billions)
Table 9: Life Insurance Market in China: Forecast 2007-2011 ($billions)
Table 10: GDP Growth vs. Total Premium Growth vs. Non-life Insurance Growth (%) – 1996-2008f
Table 11: Non-life Insurance Market in China: 1996-2007e ($ billions)
Table 12: Non-life Insurance Market in China: Forecast 2007-2011f ($billions)
Table 13: Top Domestic and Foreign-Invested Life Insurance Firms in China
Table 14: Top Domestic and Foreign-Invested Non-Life Insurance Firms in China
China has been the fastest-growing nation for the past quarter of a century with an average annual GDP growth rate above 10%. Chinese economy is the 4th largest in the world after the US, Japan and Germany, with a nominal GDP of US$3.42 trillion (2007) when measured in exchange-rate terms.
China is the world’s largest untapped insurance market. With GDP growth of over 10% per annum, rapid economic development and a burgeoning consumer class, China has the potential to become one of the world’s most significant insurance markets. Driven by a variety of demographic, economic and regulatory factors, this growth should continue at a solid pace for the foreseeable future. As of late 2004, China was fully compliant with its WTO insurance-related accession provisions, giving foreign firms greater market access. While domestic players dominate the market, foreign insurers are gradually attaining greater market share. Challenges remain, however, and include an overall lack of management talent, unsophisticated consumers, poor distribution channels and non-transparent regulatory approval processes.
Several factors are responsible for this astounding level of growth. Some of the most noticeable ones are China’s aging population; high savings rate and poor social security systems as well as an increasing number of wealthy consumers segment that is spurring growth in the property and casualty, auto and health insurance sectors. Compared to its regional peers, the Chinese market is still substantially smaller than Japan and marginally smaller than South Korea. It is, however, the fastest-growing market in both absolute and relative terms, growing by $61.17 billion and 169.63% between 2002 and 2007. This rapid development of the Chinese insurance market is driven by economic growth, but premium growth has outstripped economic growth consistently over the past five years.
In 1996, total premium .i.e. life insurance and non-life insurance combined was $12.84 billion and in 2007, it was estimated to be $97.23 billion. Between 1996 and 2007, Chinese Insurance sector experienced a CAGR of approximately 20.21%. Between 1996 and 2000, life segment had an increase of $13.11 billion from $7.14 billion to $18.56 billion and between 2002 and 2007, an increase of $37.47 billion from $24.26 billion in 2002 to $61.73 billion. We forecast that life insurance premiums in 2011 will be $108.12 billion. In non-life segment, between 1996 and 2007, a growth of $29.80 billion was seen from $5.70 billion in 1996 and $35.50 billion in 2007. It is expected that non-life premiums in 2011 will be $64.37 billion.
Major Driving Factors
=> Variety of demographic, economic and regulatory factors
=> Demand from Commercial Property Segment
=> Increased risk awareness and demand for sophisticated products
=> Improved expertise of local insurers
=> Guarantee rate reform and many other....
Major Trends & Issues
=> Foreign entrants facing ownership restrictions with respect to joint ventures
=> Regulatory obstacles for foreign companies
=> Use of bank channels by insurance companies to reach out to consumers in non-urban areas.
=> Customer loyalty in China’s insurance market is very thin, and customers are easily poached.
=> The State Council having recently cleared the way for banks to invest in established insurance companies on a pilot basis
=> Focus from price competition has shifted to developing new products and expanding the overall size of the insurance market
=> Low penetration as a result of low customer awareness
=> Need of further capacity and expertise in specialist areas such as MAT, energy, liability insurance
=> And many other....
Emerging Areas
=> Longer-term foreign exchange life insurance policies
=> Cross-sector investment (e.g., investment in banks), and an expansion of investment classifications (asset-backed securities, property, industry funds, offshore markets, etc.) for insurers.
=> Development of a Stock Broker Market
=> Growth of domestic reinsurance capacity
=> And many other....
As per China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) as of June 30, 2006, there were around 100 insurance companies in China. Out of these 100 companies, there were 56 domestic insurance companies and 44 foreign insurance companies. Domestic insurance companies had a market share of approximately 93.3% and the remaining 6.7% was controlled by the foreign insurance companies. The entire market is quite fragmented and most of these 56 domestic insurance companies are region-centric and are strong in their respective markets. The largest foreign companies are AIU (a subsidiary of AIG), Tokio Marine, and Mitsui Somitomo. As new players have entered the market, competition has intensified significantly, as the existing players fight to maintain their market share.
Topics covered in the report
=> Trend analysis of Chinese economy & macroeconomic factors contributing to the growth of the sector
=> China’s position in the context of emerging countries
=> Historical growth trends & growth drivers of Insurance & its sub-sectors in China and outlook till 2011.
=> Market size of insurance sector (total, life & non-life) since 2000 till 2007
=> Market forecast of insurance sector (total, life & non-life) between 2007 and 2011
=> Government policies, initiatives, regulations and problems faced by foreign insurers
=> Key issues & challenges, major trends & opportunities
=> Role of stock brokers, banks, domestic reinsurance and bancassurance segments
=> Industry and markets with best prospects for insurance products
=> Government’s initiatives to promote & regulate the insurance market
=> Competitive landscape and market share of top players
=> And many more...
Table of Contents
METHODOLOGY & RESEARCH APPROACH
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. CHINA
1.1. CHINESE ECONOMY
1.1.1. Macroeconomic trends
1.2. GOVERNMENT POLICIES
1.2.1. Three-Step Regional Development Strategy
1.2.2. The 11th Five-Year Program (2006-2010)
1.2.3. Development of Energy-Efficient Society
2. CHINESE INSURANCE SECTOR
2.1. MARKET OVERVIEW
2.1.1. Insurance Sector vs. Macro-Economic Factors
2.1.2. Market Constituents
2.2. MARKET PERFORMANCE & FORECAST (1996-2011)
2.2.1. Chinese Insurance Market
2.2.1.1. Chinese Life Insurance Market
2.2.1.2. Chinese Non-Life Insurance Market
2.3. TRENDS, ISSUES AND OPPORTUNITIES – AN ANALYSIS
2.3.1. Demand from Commercial Property Segment
2.3.2. Increasing Population and Prospective Buyers
2.3.3. Middle-men or Broker Market
2.3.4. Entry of Banks
2.3.5. Increasing risk awareness & demand for innovative products
2.3.6. Guarantee rate reform
2.3.7. Development of domestic reinsurance markets
2.3.8. Regulatory obstacles
2.3.9. Other major issues & trends
2.4. GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS
2.5. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
2.5.1. Market Segmentation
2.5.1.1. Competition in Life Insurance Sector
2.5.1.2. Competition in Non-Life Insurance Sector
2.5.2. Driving Factors
2.5.3. Company Profiles
2.5.3.1. China Life Insurance Company Limited
2.5.3.2. China Pacific
2.5.3.3. Ping An
2.5.3.4. New China Life
Pages: 82; Format: PDF
List of Charts
Chart 1: China’s GDP Growth (1952-2005)
Chart 2: Macroeconomic Data & Factors
Chart 3: Total Premium Growth vs. GDP Growth (%) – 1996-2007e
Chart 4: Growth (%): Life vs. Non-Life vs. Total Premium vs. GDP (%) – 1996-2008f
Chart 5: Chinese Insurance Market: Segment Share
Chart 6: China Insurance Market Value ($billion): 2000-2007e
Chart 7: China Insurance Market Value Forecast ($ billion): 2008-2011f
Chart 8: Growth Trend of Life Insurance and Non-Life Insurance ($billion): 1996-2007e
Chart 9: GDP Growth vs. Total Premium Growth vs. Life Insurance Growth (%) – 1996-2007e
Chart 10: Life Insurance Market in China: 1996-2007e ($ billions)
Chart 11: Life Insurance Market in China: Forecast 2007-2011f ($billions)
Chart 12: GDP Growth vs. Total Premium Growth vs. Non-life Insurance Growth (%) – 1996-2008f
Chart 13: Sub-sector share of Non-life Insurance Market in China
Chart 14: Non-life Insurance Market in China: 1996-2007e ($ billions)
Chart 15: Non-life Insurance Market in China: Forecast 2007-2011f ($billions)
Chart 16: Market Share of Top 3 Domestic Life Insurance Companies
Chart 17: Market Share of Non-life Insurance Companies in China
Chart 18: Market Share of Reinsurers in China (2006)
List of Tables
Table 1: Macroeconomic Data & Factors
Table 2: Chinese GDP vs. US Dollar exchange vs. Inflation Index
Table 3: Total Premium Growth & GDP Growth (%) – 1996-2007e
Table 4: Growth (%): Life vs. Non-Life vs. Total Premium vs. GDP (%) – 1996-2008f
Table 5: China Insurance Market Value & Forecast ($ billion): 1996-2011f
Table 6: Growth Trend of Life Insurance and Non-Life Insurance ($billion): 1996-2007e
Table 7: GDP Growth vs. Total Premium Growth vs. Life Insurance Growth (%) – 1996-2007e
Table 8: Life Insurance Market in China: 1996-2007 ($ billions)
Table 9: Life Insurance Market in China: Forecast 2007-2011 ($billions)
Table 10: GDP Growth vs. Total Premium Growth vs. Non-life Insurance Growth (%) – 1996-2008f
Table 11: Non-life Insurance Market in China: 1996-2007e ($ billions)
Table 12: Non-life Insurance Market in China: Forecast 2007-2011f ($billions)
Table 13: Top Domestic and Foreign-Invested Life Insurance Firms in China
Table 14: Top Domestic and Foreign-Invested Non-Life Insurance Firms in China
Vietnam Insurance Sector: Untapped Potential
Authors: Akash Rakyan & Nishith Srivastava
In recent years, there has been a significant economic growth in Vietnam of approximately 7.5% per annum. This growth is attributable to the recently adopted strategic and long-term initiatives by the Vietnamese government. These steps have streamlined and improved the economic infrastructure of the country by offering more incentives for foreign investors and implementing a 10 year socio-economic development plan etc. The country has gradually migrated from a planned economy to a market based economy by shifting its focus from agricultural production to industries and services. With all these developments, Vietnam has become one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, averaging around 8% annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth from 1990 to 1997 and 6.5% from 1998-2003. From 2004 to 2007, GDP grew over 8% annually. Vietnam is now able to compete and get counted with regional as well as global economic countries. There has been a significant increase in inflows of foreign direct and private investment.
In the last few years, Vietnamese insurance sector has seen a noticeable growth. Today, despite being very young, Vietnamese life insurance market has already overtaken Indonesia and Philippines in terms of market penetration. This is because Insurance premium forms a larger percentage of the country’s GDP. With opening up of its insurance market since 1996, more and more foreign insurers are getting access to the highly lucrative insurance market in Vietnam. Foreign companies can now easily operate in the country and are forming joint ventures with local companies in order to enter Vietnam and diversify their clientele. In addition, a range of foreign life insurers, including some large Asian-based life insurers (principally from Singapore, Taiwan, China and South Korea), have set up representative offices in Vietnam and are working toward gaining operating licenses. Investors from regions like Asia, US and Europe are also actively lobbying the Vietnamese government for access to the local insurance market. Upon the country's accession to the World Trade Organization, foreign insurers expect to be allowed to establish more wholly owned units and to benefit from progressively declining limitations on their scope of business.
Market Performance & Forecast
In 2000, Insurance sector was valued to be $177.12 million. Within the next 7 years, the total market size of insurance sector in Vietnam was estimated to be $1141.98 million in 2007; a CAGR growth of 26.23% and an average growth rate of 33.25% during this tenure. Going forward, we are expecting a CAGR growth of around 12.30% in the Vietnamese Insurance Sector between 2007 and 2011. During this time period, the market from $1141.98 million will grow at an average rate of 16.25% and reach $2039.95 million by the end of 2011.
Between 2000 and 2007, Vietnamese life insurance sector increased from $51.12 million to $586.24 million, CAGR growth of 35.65% during this period. We forecast that the life insurance market in Vietnam would grow at a CAGR of 10.71% and an annual average growth rate of 13.21% between 2007 and 2011. From $596.24 million in 2007, the market will increase by approximately $388 million and reach $975.21 million by the end of 2011.
Non-life premiums in Vietnam were estimated to be $555.74 million in 2007, a growth of $429.74 million from the market size of $126.00 million in year 2000. Between 2007 and 2011, we project a CAGR of 13.89% .i.e. from $555.74 million in 2007; the non-life insurance sector in Vietnam will reach $1064.75 million.
According to the Vietnam Insurance Association, there are 120,000 insurance agents and 10,000 employees in the country. There are currently 16 non-life insurers, eight life insurers and seven insurance brokers. Vietnam's life insurers offer about 100 products and generated premium income. Fifteen foreign insurers have established operations and 30 others have representative offices. Foreign-owned insurers dominate the life insurance market. Domestic insurers are more dominant in the non-life insurance market and foreign insurers hold only a 7 percent market share. Some of the top insurance companies in Vietnam are ACE Life Insurance Co., Ltd., AIG General Insurance (Vietnam) Company Limited, Bao Viet Holdings, Bao Minh, Groupama/GAN, Nipponkoa Insurance Co., Ltd., Prudential Vietnam Assurance, Petrolimex Joint Stock Insurance Company (PJICO), Petrovietnam Insurance Company (PVIC), and QBE Insurance (Vietnam) Company Limited etc.
Major Driving Factors
=> Economic growth above 8 percent
=> Entry to the World Trade Organization (WTO)
=> Opening up of insurance market for foreign investments
=> US-Vietnam bilateral trade agreement in 2001
=> Emerging middle class & increasing literacy rate
=> Increasing foreign direct investments
=> And many more…
Major Issues & Trends
=> Foreign investors targeting Vietnamese Insurance Sector
=> Foreign companies trying to capture Vietnamese Market
=> Insurance still in a nascent stage due to traditional mindset
=> Lack of infrastructure and support
=> Setting up of a national export-credit insurance organisation
=> Demand for risk prevention increasing
=> Staffing concerns in insurance companies
=> Establishment of the Laos-Vietnam Insurance Joint Venture (LVI)
=> Recent developments at Bao Viet
=> And many more…
Topics covered in the report
=> Economic performance of Vietnam
=> Recent economic policies of the Communist Party
=> Macroeconomic trends and drivers
=> Focus on increasing Foreign Direct Investments and opening up of insurance market
=> Past and present scenario of Vietnamese Insurance Market & Future Outlook
=> Past and present scenario of Vietnamese Life Insurance Market & Future Outlook
=> Past and present scenario of Vietnamese Non-Life Insurance Market & Future Outlook
=> Driving factors for Vietnamese Insurance Market
=> Entry in WTO
=> Setting up of a national export-credit insurance organisation
=> Establishment of the Laos-Vietnam Insurance Joint Venture (LVI)
=> Government strategic initiatives to strengthen Insurance Market
=> Competitive Landscape & Market Share of foreign and domestic players
=> Recent developments in Bao Viet
=> Company profiles of top players
=> And many more…
Table of Contents
1. VIETNAM
1.1 VIETNAMESE ECONOMY
1.2 GOVERNMENT POLICIES
2. INSURANCE SECTOR
2.1 MARKET OVERVIEW
2.2 MARKET SEGMENTATION & PERFORMANCE
2.2.1 Vietnamese Insurance Market
2.2.1.1 Life Insurance Sector
2.2.1.2 Non-Life Insurance Sector
2.3 DRIVING FACTORS
2.3.1 Recent catalysts
2.3.2 Young and vibrant population
2.3.3 Emerging middles class
2.3.4 Literacy rate
2.3.5 War of talent
2.3.6 Increasing foreign direct investment (FDI)
2.4 TRENDS, ISSUES AND OPPORTUNITIES – AN ANALYSIS
2.4.1 Foreign investors targeting Vietnamese Insurance Sector
2.4.2 Entry in WTO
2.4.3 Foreign companies trying to capture Vietnamese Market
2.4.4 Traditional mindset of the people – Insurance still in a nascent stage
2.4.5 Inadequate basic infrastructure and support
2.4.6 Underselling to capture market
2.4.7 Setting up of a national export-credit insurance organisation
2.4.8 Underlying opportunity for life insurance policies – need for risk prevention
2.4.9 Entry of foreign players & staffing concerns
2.4.10 Historical economic growth trends
2.4.11 Establishment of the Laos-Vietnam Insurance Joint Venture (LVI)
2.4.12 Factors driving investment decisions
2.4.13 Transformation at Bao Viet
2.4.14 HSBC enters strategic relationship with top Vietnam insurer, Bao Viet
2.5 GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS
2.6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE & MARKET SHARE
2.6.1 Company Profiles
2.6.1.1 ACE Life Insurance Co., Ltd.
2.6.1.2 AIG General Insurance (Vietnam) Company Limited
2.6.1.3 Bao Viet Holdings
2.6.1.4 Bao Minh
2.6.1.5 Groupama/GAN
2.6.1.6 Nipponkoa Insurance Co., Ltd.
2.6.1.7 Prudential Vietnam Assurance
2.6.1.8 Petrolimex Joint Stock Insurance Company (PJICO)
2.6.1.9 Petrovietnam Insurance Company (PVIC)
2.6.1.10 QBE Insurance (Vietnam) Company Limited
Pages: 107; Format: PDF
List of Charts
Chart 1: Macroeconomic Data: Population (mil.) vs. Nominal GDP ($ billions): 2002-2011
Chart 2: Macroeconomic Data: GDP per capital ($mil.) vs. Real GDP Growth (%): 2002-2011
Chart 3: Vietnam Insurance Market ($million): 2000-2007e
Chart 4: Vietnam Insurance Market Forecast ($million): 2007e-2011f
Chart 5: Vietnam Life Insurance Market Value ($million): 2000-2007e
Chart 6: Vietnam Life Insurance Market Value Forecast ($million): 2007e-2011f
Chart 7: Vietnam Non-Life Insurance Market Value ($million): 2000-2007e
Chart 8: Vietnam Non-Life Insurance Market Value Forecast ($million): 2007e-2011f
Chart 9: Market Share of Life Insurance Companies in Vietnam
Chart 10: Market Share of Non-Life Insurance Companies in Vietnam
List of Tables
Table 1: Macroeconomic Data: Population (mil.) vs. Nominal GDP ($ billions): 2002-2011
Table 2: Macroeconomic Data: GDP per capital ($mil.) vs. Real GDP Growth (%): 2002-2011
Table 3: Vietnam Insurance Market ($million): 2000-2007e
Table 4: Vietnam Insurance Market Forecast ($million): 2007e-2011f
Table 5: Vietnam Life Insurance Market Value ($million): 2000-2007e
Table 6: Vietnam Life Insurance Market Value Forecast ($million): 2007e-2011f
Table 7: Vietnam Non-Life Insurance Market Value ($million): 2000-2007e
Table 8: Vietnam Life Insurance Market Value Forecast ($million): 2007e-2011
In recent years, there has been a significant economic growth in Vietnam of approximately 7.5% per annum. This growth is attributable to the recently adopted strategic and long-term initiatives by the Vietnamese government. These steps have streamlined and improved the economic infrastructure of the country by offering more incentives for foreign investors and implementing a 10 year socio-economic development plan etc. The country has gradually migrated from a planned economy to a market based economy by shifting its focus from agricultural production to industries and services. With all these developments, Vietnam has become one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, averaging around 8% annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth from 1990 to 1997 and 6.5% from 1998-2003. From 2004 to 2007, GDP grew over 8% annually. Vietnam is now able to compete and get counted with regional as well as global economic countries. There has been a significant increase in inflows of foreign direct and private investment.
In the last few years, Vietnamese insurance sector has seen a noticeable growth. Today, despite being very young, Vietnamese life insurance market has already overtaken Indonesia and Philippines in terms of market penetration. This is because Insurance premium forms a larger percentage of the country’s GDP. With opening up of its insurance market since 1996, more and more foreign insurers are getting access to the highly lucrative insurance market in Vietnam. Foreign companies can now easily operate in the country and are forming joint ventures with local companies in order to enter Vietnam and diversify their clientele. In addition, a range of foreign life insurers, including some large Asian-based life insurers (principally from Singapore, Taiwan, China and South Korea), have set up representative offices in Vietnam and are working toward gaining operating licenses. Investors from regions like Asia, US and Europe are also actively lobbying the Vietnamese government for access to the local insurance market. Upon the country's accession to the World Trade Organization, foreign insurers expect to be allowed to establish more wholly owned units and to benefit from progressively declining limitations on their scope of business.
Market Performance & Forecast
In 2000, Insurance sector was valued to be $177.12 million. Within the next 7 years, the total market size of insurance sector in Vietnam was estimated to be $1141.98 million in 2007; a CAGR growth of 26.23% and an average growth rate of 33.25% during this tenure. Going forward, we are expecting a CAGR growth of around 12.30% in the Vietnamese Insurance Sector between 2007 and 2011. During this time period, the market from $1141.98 million will grow at an average rate of 16.25% and reach $2039.95 million by the end of 2011.
Between 2000 and 2007, Vietnamese life insurance sector increased from $51.12 million to $586.24 million, CAGR growth of 35.65% during this period. We forecast that the life insurance market in Vietnam would grow at a CAGR of 10.71% and an annual average growth rate of 13.21% between 2007 and 2011. From $596.24 million in 2007, the market will increase by approximately $388 million and reach $975.21 million by the end of 2011.
Non-life premiums in Vietnam were estimated to be $555.74 million in 2007, a growth of $429.74 million from the market size of $126.00 million in year 2000. Between 2007 and 2011, we project a CAGR of 13.89% .i.e. from $555.74 million in 2007; the non-life insurance sector in Vietnam will reach $1064.75 million.
According to the Vietnam Insurance Association, there are 120,000 insurance agents and 10,000 employees in the country. There are currently 16 non-life insurers, eight life insurers and seven insurance brokers. Vietnam's life insurers offer about 100 products and generated premium income. Fifteen foreign insurers have established operations and 30 others have representative offices. Foreign-owned insurers dominate the life insurance market. Domestic insurers are more dominant in the non-life insurance market and foreign insurers hold only a 7 percent market share. Some of the top insurance companies in Vietnam are ACE Life Insurance Co., Ltd., AIG General Insurance (Vietnam) Company Limited, Bao Viet Holdings, Bao Minh, Groupama/GAN, Nipponkoa Insurance Co., Ltd., Prudential Vietnam Assurance, Petrolimex Joint Stock Insurance Company (PJICO), Petrovietnam Insurance Company (PVIC), and QBE Insurance (Vietnam) Company Limited etc.
Major Driving Factors
=> Economic growth above 8 percent
=> Entry to the World Trade Organization (WTO)
=> Opening up of insurance market for foreign investments
=> US-Vietnam bilateral trade agreement in 2001
=> Emerging middle class & increasing literacy rate
=> Increasing foreign direct investments
=> And many more…
Major Issues & Trends
=> Foreign investors targeting Vietnamese Insurance Sector
=> Foreign companies trying to capture Vietnamese Market
=> Insurance still in a nascent stage due to traditional mindset
=> Lack of infrastructure and support
=> Setting up of a national export-credit insurance organisation
=> Demand for risk prevention increasing
=> Staffing concerns in insurance companies
=> Establishment of the Laos-Vietnam Insurance Joint Venture (LVI)
=> Recent developments at Bao Viet
=> And many more…
Topics covered in the report
=> Economic performance of Vietnam
=> Recent economic policies of the Communist Party
=> Macroeconomic trends and drivers
=> Focus on increasing Foreign Direct Investments and opening up of insurance market
=> Past and present scenario of Vietnamese Insurance Market & Future Outlook
=> Past and present scenario of Vietnamese Life Insurance Market & Future Outlook
=> Past and present scenario of Vietnamese Non-Life Insurance Market & Future Outlook
=> Driving factors for Vietnamese Insurance Market
=> Entry in WTO
=> Setting up of a national export-credit insurance organisation
=> Establishment of the Laos-Vietnam Insurance Joint Venture (LVI)
=> Government strategic initiatives to strengthen Insurance Market
=> Competitive Landscape & Market Share of foreign and domestic players
=> Recent developments in Bao Viet
=> Company profiles of top players
=> And many more…
Table of Contents
1. VIETNAM
1.1 VIETNAMESE ECONOMY
1.2 GOVERNMENT POLICIES
2. INSURANCE SECTOR
2.1 MARKET OVERVIEW
2.2 MARKET SEGMENTATION & PERFORMANCE
2.2.1 Vietnamese Insurance Market
2.2.1.1 Life Insurance Sector
2.2.1.2 Non-Life Insurance Sector
2.3 DRIVING FACTORS
2.3.1 Recent catalysts
2.3.2 Young and vibrant population
2.3.3 Emerging middles class
2.3.4 Literacy rate
2.3.5 War of talent
2.3.6 Increasing foreign direct investment (FDI)
2.4 TRENDS, ISSUES AND OPPORTUNITIES – AN ANALYSIS
2.4.1 Foreign investors targeting Vietnamese Insurance Sector
2.4.2 Entry in WTO
2.4.3 Foreign companies trying to capture Vietnamese Market
2.4.4 Traditional mindset of the people – Insurance still in a nascent stage
2.4.5 Inadequate basic infrastructure and support
2.4.6 Underselling to capture market
2.4.7 Setting up of a national export-credit insurance organisation
2.4.8 Underlying opportunity for life insurance policies – need for risk prevention
2.4.9 Entry of foreign players & staffing concerns
2.4.10 Historical economic growth trends
2.4.11 Establishment of the Laos-Vietnam Insurance Joint Venture (LVI)
2.4.12 Factors driving investment decisions
2.4.13 Transformation at Bao Viet
2.4.14 HSBC enters strategic relationship with top Vietnam insurer, Bao Viet
2.5 GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS
2.6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE & MARKET SHARE
2.6.1 Company Profiles
2.6.1.1 ACE Life Insurance Co., Ltd.
2.6.1.2 AIG General Insurance (Vietnam) Company Limited
2.6.1.3 Bao Viet Holdings
2.6.1.4 Bao Minh
2.6.1.5 Groupama/GAN
2.6.1.6 Nipponkoa Insurance Co., Ltd.
2.6.1.7 Prudential Vietnam Assurance
2.6.1.8 Petrolimex Joint Stock Insurance Company (PJICO)
2.6.1.9 Petrovietnam Insurance Company (PVIC)
2.6.1.10 QBE Insurance (Vietnam) Company Limited
Pages: 107; Format: PDF
List of Charts
Chart 1: Macroeconomic Data: Population (mil.) vs. Nominal GDP ($ billions): 2002-2011
Chart 2: Macroeconomic Data: GDP per capital ($mil.) vs. Real GDP Growth (%): 2002-2011
Chart 3: Vietnam Insurance Market ($million): 2000-2007e
Chart 4: Vietnam Insurance Market Forecast ($million): 2007e-2011f
Chart 5: Vietnam Life Insurance Market Value ($million): 2000-2007e
Chart 6: Vietnam Life Insurance Market Value Forecast ($million): 2007e-2011f
Chart 7: Vietnam Non-Life Insurance Market Value ($million): 2000-2007e
Chart 8: Vietnam Non-Life Insurance Market Value Forecast ($million): 2007e-2011f
Chart 9: Market Share of Life Insurance Companies in Vietnam
Chart 10: Market Share of Non-Life Insurance Companies in Vietnam
List of Tables
Table 1: Macroeconomic Data: Population (mil.) vs. Nominal GDP ($ billions): 2002-2011
Table 2: Macroeconomic Data: GDP per capital ($mil.) vs. Real GDP Growth (%): 2002-2011
Table 3: Vietnam Insurance Market ($million): 2000-2007e
Table 4: Vietnam Insurance Market Forecast ($million): 2007e-2011f
Table 5: Vietnam Life Insurance Market Value ($million): 2000-2007e
Table 6: Vietnam Life Insurance Market Value Forecast ($million): 2007e-2011f
Table 7: Vietnam Non-Life Insurance Market Value ($million): 2000-2007e
Table 8: Vietnam Life Insurance Market Value Forecast ($million): 2007e-2011
Thailand Insurance Sector
Authors: Nishith Srivastava & Akash Rakyan
Thailand is the 2nd largest economy in Southeast Asia, after Indonesia. It ranks midway in the wealth spread in South East Asia and is the 4th richest nation per capita, after Singapore, Brunei, and Malaysia. The Thai economy in 2008 is forecasted to grow at 5.6% (in the forecasted range of 5.0-6.0%). This figure is an improvement on 4.8% growth in the previous year according to Fiscal Policy Office (FPO), Ministry of Finance. In 2008 accelerated public sector spending led to recovery in domestic demand which is expected to be far more balanced economic expansion. Government policy would then be forced to stimulate the domestic economy. This happens when external demand is likely to be softened from possible global economic slowdown. External stability in 2008 will remain strong with current account surplus estimated to be 0.5% of GDP (in the range of 0.3-0.8% of GDP). In contrast, internal stability in 2008 may have some risk with increasing headline inflation at 4.5% (in a range of 4.3-4.8%). This is mainly due to rising energy and food prices in the world markets.
According to ‘The Economist’, real GDP growth will slow down by 1.15% p.a over the next 4 years (2008-12), as compared to 5.3% p.a in past 3 years since 2007. This sluggishness of GDP can be attributed to various negative factors, such as political uncertainty, instability of foreign exchange rates, and continuous high petroleum prices in 2006.
The Thai insurance industry, along with the wider Thai economy, has now however recovered from the depths of the Asian financial crisis and is experiencing noteworthy growth. The trend is expected to continue as public awareness of the need for insurance increases.
Market Performance and Forecast
Within a span of 7 years (2000-2007), Thai Insurance Sector has experienced a growth of 191% currently valuated at $9,434.72 million. The Knowledge Centre predicts, the overall market size will increase by 72.5% further and is expected to touch the highs of $13,012.75 million by 2011.
The life insurance market in Thailand between 2000 and 2007 increased at a CAGR of 16.57%. The Knowledge Centre envisages that this trend would continue and the market will see CAGR of 5.75% in 5 years and reach $8,306.21 million in 2011.
The non-life insurance market in Thailand between 2000 and 2007 increased at a CAGR of 10.73%. The Knowledge Centre also forecasts that the growth will continue and the market will see CAGR of 8.34% in the next 5 years with the premiums reaching $4,706 million by 2011.
Competitive Landscape
Some of the top foreign insurance companies in Thailand are ACE, AIG, Allianz, AXA, Generali, ING, Millea Holdings, Manulife, New York Life and Prudential (UK). The market is dominated by AIA, the local name of AIG that accounted for approx. 29% of all of gross premiums in 2007. Thai Life (TLI) is considered to be the second largest player overall with a market share of approx. 14%. The next largest group is considered to be a joint venture between non-life insurer Ayudhya, local conglomerate Charoen Pokphand and Allianz (AACP) with a market share of approx. 14%. Other major players in this market are Ocean Life, Finansa, local associates of AXA (Krungthai) and ING.
Non-life insurance sector in Thailand is further sub-categorized under Fire, Marine & Transportation, Hull, Cargo, Automobile, Compulsory, Voluntary, Miscellaneous, Industrial All Risks, Public Liability, Engineering Insurance, Aviation Insurance, Personal Accident, Health Insurance, Crop Insurance and Other Insurance. Some of the top companies in this sector are Bangkok Insurance, Dhipaya Insurance, Phatra Insurance, New Hampshire Insurance, Ayudhya Insurance, Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance, MSIG Insurance, Sri Muang Insurance, Siam Commercial Samaggi, South East Insurance, Viriyah Insurance, Synmunkong Insurance, Krungthai Panich etc.
Driving factors
Balanced economic expansion and supporting role of the government
Recent reforms and government’s regulatory initiatives
Re-defined financial practices and strengthening of corporate governance
Relaxation of restrictions on directors and senior executives of insurance companies
Amendment of clauses governing the evaluation of assets & debts of a life insurance company
Merger or consolidation of the large number of local insurers
Middle income industrial developing nation
Growing interest in Bancassurance
Adoption of THBFix and Bibor
Establishment of Insurance Commission
Major trends, issues and opportunities
Mergers and acquisitions in Thailand's insurance industry are likely to drop off
Thailand's economy is slowing as the effects of high oil prices, rising interest rates and long-running political uncertainty take their toll.
Political uncertainty and instability of foreign exchange rates
Bullish trend in fixed deposit rates
Government regulations laying a strong foundation for future growth
Increase in foreign ownership limits
Move towards a knowledge economy through skills development
Issues in Health Insurance Systems
Topics covered in the report
Thai economy, its performance, future outlook for 2008-09
Government’s economic policies, macroeconomic factors, trends and analysis
Economic and Insurance environment in Thailand
Market performance and forecast for Thai Insurance Sector between 2000, 2007 and 2011
Market performance and forecast for Thai Life Insurance Sector between 2000, 2007 & 2011
Market performance and forecast for Thai Non-Life Insurance Sector between 2000, 2007 & 2011
Recent reorganization of financial institutions and setting up of Insurance Commission
Corporate Finance Legislation and other major regulatory developments
Role of Bancassurance
Specific regulations and norms by the Thai Government for insurance sector.
Sub-categorization of life and non-life insurance sector
Competitive landscape & market share of companies in life and non-life insurance sector
Company profiles of top players in life and non-life insurance sector
Table of Contents
1. THAILAND
1.1. THAI ECONOMY
1.2. GOVERNMENT POLICIES
2. THAI INSURANCE SECTOR
2.1. MARKET OVERVIEW
2.2. MARKET PERFORMANCE & FORECAST
2.2.1. Thailand Insurance Market
2.2.1.1. Thailand – Life Insurance Market
2.2.1.2. Thailand – Non-Life Market
2.3. DRIVING FACTORS
2.3.1. Recent Reforms
2.3.2. M&A or transfer of the business of an Insurance Company
2.3.3. Thai Corporate Finance Legislation
2.3.4. Role of Bancassurance
2.3.5. Recent Regulatory Developments
2.3.6. Insurance Commission replaced Department of Insurance
2.4. TRENDS, ISSUES AND OPPORTUNITIES – AN ANALYSIS
2.4.1. Insurance M&A likely to drop
2.4.2. Pending Legislations
2.4.3. Implications for Foreign Insurers
2.4.4. Skills development remains a key
2.4.5. Issues in Health Insurance Systems in Thailand
2.5. GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS
2.6. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
2.6.1. Life Insurance
2.6.1.1. Life Insurance Renewal Market
2.6.1.2. Single Premium Market
2.6.2. Non-Life Insurance Market
2.6.2.1. Fire Insurance Market
2.6.2.2. Marine and Transportation Market
2.6.2.3. Cargo & Hull Market
2.6.2.4. Automobile Sector
2.6.2.5. Miscellaneous Insurance
2.6.2.6. Industrial All Risks Insurance
2.6.2.7. Public Liability Insurance
2.6.2.8. Engineering Insurance
2.6.2.9. Aviation Insurance
2.6.2.10. Health Insurance
2.6.2.11. Personal Accident Insurance
2.6.2.12. Other Insurance
2.6.3. Company Profiles
2.6.3.1. American International Assurance company (AIA), Thailand
2.6.3.2. ACE INA Overseas Insurance Company Limited
2.6.3.3. Ayudhya Insurance Public Company Limited
2.6.3.4. Ayudhya Allianz C.P. Life Public Company Limited
2.6.3.5. Bangkok Insurance Public Company Limited
2.6.3.6. Bangkok Union Insurance
2.6.3.7. Charan Insurance
2.6.3.8. Deves Insurance
2.6.3.9. ING Life Limited
2.6.3.10. Indara Insurance
2.6.3.11. Manulife Insurance (Thailand) Public Company Limited
2.6.3.12. MSIG Insurance
2.6.3.13. QBE Insurance (Thailand) Company Limited
2.6.3.14. Sri Muang Insurance
2.6.3.15. The Viriyah Insurance Co., Ltd.
List of Tables
Table 1: Macroeconomic Trends: Population (mil.) vs. Nominal GDP ($ bil.) – 2002-2011f
Table 2: Macroeconomic Trends: GDP per capital ($ bil.) vs. Real GDP Growth (%) – 2003-2011f
Table 3: Growth Trends: Inflation (2002-2008f)
Table 4: Key Economic Indicators Forecast – 2007-2012f
Table 5: Growth Trend Comparison: GDP Growth vs. Insurance Growth (%) – 2000-2011
Table 6: Thailand Insurance Market Value ($million): 2000-2007
Table 7: Thailand Insurance Market Value Forecast ($million): 2007-2011f
Table 8 : Insurance Density: Premiums Per Capita in USD
Table 9: Insurance Premium in % of GDP (2001-2011f)
Table 10: Growth Trend of Life Insurance and Non-Life Insurance ($Million): 2000-2011f
Table 11: Thailand Life Insurance Market Value ($million): 2000-2007
Table 12: Thailand Life Insurance Market Value Forecast ($million): 2007-2011f
Table 13: Thailand Non-Life Insurance Market Value ($million): 2000-2007
Table 14: Thailand Non-Life Insurance Market Value Forecast ($million): 2007-2011f
Table 15: Thailand Insurance Sector: Projections of Macroeconomic Drivers (2006-2010f)
Table 16: Market Share of Top Players in Life Insurance Sector: Comparison between 2006 & 2007 (Million Baht) and their Growth (%)
Table 17: Life Insurance Total Premium Growth Year on Year by Company 2006-2007 (%)
Table 18: Life Insurance Market Growth by First Year Premium of Top Companies: Comparison between 2006 & 2007 (mn Baht)
Table 19: Life Insurance Market Growth by First Year Premium of Top Companies: Comparison between 2006 & 2007 (%)
Table 20: Life Insurance Premium Renewal (million Baht) and Growth (%) Year on Year for Top Companies (2006-2007)
Table 21: Life Insurance Renewal Market Share of Top Companies in 2007 (mn Baht)
Table 22: Life Insurance Single Premium Market Share of Top Companies in 2007 (mn Baht & % growth)
Table 23: Loss Ratio of Non - Life Insurance Business (2007)
Table 24: Marine and Transportation Companies: Markey Share by Direct Premium (Unit: 1,000 Baht)
Table 25: Automobile Insurance Top companies by Direct Premium (2007)
Table 26: Top Miscellaneous Non-Life Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium (%) – 2007
Table 27: Top Industrial All Risk Non-Life Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium – 2007
Table 28: Top Public Liability Non-Life Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium – 2007
Table 29: Top Engineering Non-Life Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium (%) – 2007
Table 30: Top Aviation Non-Life Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium – 2007
Table 31: Top Health Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium – 2007
Table 32: Top Personal Accident Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium – 2007
Table 33: Top Other Non-Life Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium – 2007
List of Charts
Chart 1: Macroeconomic Trends: Population (mil.) vs. Nominal GDP ($ bil.) – 2002-2011f
Chart 2: Macroeconomic Trends: GDP per capital ($ bil.) vs. Real GDP Growth (%) – 2003-2011f
Chart 3: Growth Trends: Inflation (2002-2008f)
Chart 4: Key Economic Indicators Forecast (2007-2012f)
Chart 5: Growth Trend Comparison: GDP Growth vs. Insurance Growth (%) – 2000-2011f
Chart 6: Thailand Insurance Market Value ($billion): 2000-2007
Chart 7: Thailand Insurance Market Value Forecast ($million): 2007-2011f
Chart 8: Insurance Density: Premiums Per Capita in USD
Chart 9: Insurance Premium in % of GDP (2001-2011f)
Chart 10: Thailand Insurance Market: Segment Share 2007
Chart 11: Growth Trend of Life Insurance and Non-Life Insurance ($Million): 2000-2011f
Chart 12: Thailand Life Insurance Market Value ($million): 2000-2007
Chart 13: Thailand Life Insurance Market Value Forecast ($million): 2007-2011f
Chart 14: Thailand Non-Life Insurance Market Value ($million): 2000-2007
Chart 15: Thailand Non-Life Insurance Market Value Forecast ($million): 2007-2011f
Chart 16: Market Segmentation of Non-Life Insurance (%): 2007
Chart 17: Market Segmentation of Non-Life Companies by Ownership 2007 (%)
Chart 18: Comparison of Direct Premiums of Non - Life Insurance Business (2007 & 2006)
Chart 19: Direct Premium per Insurance Policy for 2007-2006 (Baht)
Chart 20: Comparison of Sum Insured Per Premium of Non - Life Insurance Business Segments (2007 & 2006)
Chart 21: Loss Ratio of Non - Life Insurance Business (2007)
Chart 22: Market Share of Top Life Insurance Companies by Total Premium in 2007 (%)
Chart 23: Life Insurance First Year Premium Market Segment in 2007 by Top Companies (%)
Chart 24: Life Insurance Premium Renewal (million Baht) and Growth (%) Year on Year for Top Companies (2006-2007)
Chart 25: Life Insurance Renewal Market Share of Top Companies in 2007 (%)
Chart 26: Single Insurance Premium Company Segmentation 2007
Chart 27: Fire Insurance Companies – Market Share (%): 2007
Chart 28: Marine & Transport Insurance Segment Share (%): 2007
Chart 29: Cargo and Hull Market: Direct Premium Share (%) in 2006-2007
Chart 30: Marine and Transportation Companies: Markey Share by Direct Premium (Unit: 1,000 Baht)
Chart 31: Market Share of Automobile Insurance Sub Sector 2007
Chart 32: Automobile Insurance Top Companies – Market Share by Direct Premium (%) – 2007
Chart 33: Market Share of Miscellaneous Non-Life Sector (%) – 2007
Chart 34: Top Miscellaneous Non-Life Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium (%) – 2007
Chart 35: Top Industrial All Risk Non-Life Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium (%) – 2007
Chart 36: Top Public Liability Non-Life Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium (%) – 2007
Chart 37: Top Engineering Non-Life Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium (%) – 2007
Chart 38: Top Aviation Non-Life Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium (%) – 2007
Chart 39: Top Health Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium (%) – 2007
Chart 40: Top Personal Accident Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium (%) – 2007
Chart 41: Top Other Non-Life Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium (%) – 2007
Pages: 163
Thailand is the 2nd largest economy in Southeast Asia, after Indonesia. It ranks midway in the wealth spread in South East Asia and is the 4th richest nation per capita, after Singapore, Brunei, and Malaysia. The Thai economy in 2008 is forecasted to grow at 5.6% (in the forecasted range of 5.0-6.0%). This figure is an improvement on 4.8% growth in the previous year according to Fiscal Policy Office (FPO), Ministry of Finance. In 2008 accelerated public sector spending led to recovery in domestic demand which is expected to be far more balanced economic expansion. Government policy would then be forced to stimulate the domestic economy. This happens when external demand is likely to be softened from possible global economic slowdown. External stability in 2008 will remain strong with current account surplus estimated to be 0.5% of GDP (in the range of 0.3-0.8% of GDP). In contrast, internal stability in 2008 may have some risk with increasing headline inflation at 4.5% (in a range of 4.3-4.8%). This is mainly due to rising energy and food prices in the world markets.
According to ‘The Economist’, real GDP growth will slow down by 1.15% p.a over the next 4 years (2008-12), as compared to 5.3% p.a in past 3 years since 2007. This sluggishness of GDP can be attributed to various negative factors, such as political uncertainty, instability of foreign exchange rates, and continuous high petroleum prices in 2006.
The Thai insurance industry, along with the wider Thai economy, has now however recovered from the depths of the Asian financial crisis and is experiencing noteworthy growth. The trend is expected to continue as public awareness of the need for insurance increases.
Market Performance and Forecast
Within a span of 7 years (2000-2007), Thai Insurance Sector has experienced a growth of 191% currently valuated at $9,434.72 million. The Knowledge Centre predicts, the overall market size will increase by 72.5% further and is expected to touch the highs of $13,012.75 million by 2011.
The life insurance market in Thailand between 2000 and 2007 increased at a CAGR of 16.57%. The Knowledge Centre envisages that this trend would continue and the market will see CAGR of 5.75% in 5 years and reach $8,306.21 million in 2011.
The non-life insurance market in Thailand between 2000 and 2007 increased at a CAGR of 10.73%. The Knowledge Centre also forecasts that the growth will continue and the market will see CAGR of 8.34% in the next 5 years with the premiums reaching $4,706 million by 2011.
Competitive Landscape
Some of the top foreign insurance companies in Thailand are ACE, AIG, Allianz, AXA, Generali, ING, Millea Holdings, Manulife, New York Life and Prudential (UK). The market is dominated by AIA, the local name of AIG that accounted for approx. 29% of all of gross premiums in 2007. Thai Life (TLI) is considered to be the second largest player overall with a market share of approx. 14%. The next largest group is considered to be a joint venture between non-life insurer Ayudhya, local conglomerate Charoen Pokphand and Allianz (AACP) with a market share of approx. 14%. Other major players in this market are Ocean Life, Finansa, local associates of AXA (Krungthai) and ING.
Non-life insurance sector in Thailand is further sub-categorized under Fire, Marine & Transportation, Hull, Cargo, Automobile, Compulsory, Voluntary, Miscellaneous, Industrial All Risks, Public Liability, Engineering Insurance, Aviation Insurance, Personal Accident, Health Insurance, Crop Insurance and Other Insurance. Some of the top companies in this sector are Bangkok Insurance, Dhipaya Insurance, Phatra Insurance, New Hampshire Insurance, Ayudhya Insurance, Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance, MSIG Insurance, Sri Muang Insurance, Siam Commercial Samaggi, South East Insurance, Viriyah Insurance, Synmunkong Insurance, Krungthai Panich etc.
Driving factors
Balanced economic expansion and supporting role of the government
Recent reforms and government’s regulatory initiatives
Re-defined financial practices and strengthening of corporate governance
Relaxation of restrictions on directors and senior executives of insurance companies
Amendment of clauses governing the evaluation of assets & debts of a life insurance company
Merger or consolidation of the large number of local insurers
Middle income industrial developing nation
Growing interest in Bancassurance
Adoption of THBFix and Bibor
Establishment of Insurance Commission
Major trends, issues and opportunities
Mergers and acquisitions in Thailand's insurance industry are likely to drop off
Thailand's economy is slowing as the effects of high oil prices, rising interest rates and long-running political uncertainty take their toll.
Political uncertainty and instability of foreign exchange rates
Bullish trend in fixed deposit rates
Government regulations laying a strong foundation for future growth
Increase in foreign ownership limits
Move towards a knowledge economy through skills development
Issues in Health Insurance Systems
Topics covered in the report
Thai economy, its performance, future outlook for 2008-09
Government’s economic policies, macroeconomic factors, trends and analysis
Economic and Insurance environment in Thailand
Market performance and forecast for Thai Insurance Sector between 2000, 2007 and 2011
Market performance and forecast for Thai Life Insurance Sector between 2000, 2007 & 2011
Market performance and forecast for Thai Non-Life Insurance Sector between 2000, 2007 & 2011
Recent reorganization of financial institutions and setting up of Insurance Commission
Corporate Finance Legislation and other major regulatory developments
Role of Bancassurance
Specific regulations and norms by the Thai Government for insurance sector.
Sub-categorization of life and non-life insurance sector
Competitive landscape & market share of companies in life and non-life insurance sector
Company profiles of top players in life and non-life insurance sector
Table of Contents
1. THAILAND
1.1. THAI ECONOMY
1.2. GOVERNMENT POLICIES
2. THAI INSURANCE SECTOR
2.1. MARKET OVERVIEW
2.2. MARKET PERFORMANCE & FORECAST
2.2.1. Thailand Insurance Market
2.2.1.1. Thailand – Life Insurance Market
2.2.1.2. Thailand – Non-Life Market
2.3. DRIVING FACTORS
2.3.1. Recent Reforms
2.3.2. M&A or transfer of the business of an Insurance Company
2.3.3. Thai Corporate Finance Legislation
2.3.4. Role of Bancassurance
2.3.5. Recent Regulatory Developments
2.3.6. Insurance Commission replaced Department of Insurance
2.4. TRENDS, ISSUES AND OPPORTUNITIES – AN ANALYSIS
2.4.1. Insurance M&A likely to drop
2.4.2. Pending Legislations
2.4.3. Implications for Foreign Insurers
2.4.4. Skills development remains a key
2.4.5. Issues in Health Insurance Systems in Thailand
2.5. GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS
2.6. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
2.6.1. Life Insurance
2.6.1.1. Life Insurance Renewal Market
2.6.1.2. Single Premium Market
2.6.2. Non-Life Insurance Market
2.6.2.1. Fire Insurance Market
2.6.2.2. Marine and Transportation Market
2.6.2.3. Cargo & Hull Market
2.6.2.4. Automobile Sector
2.6.2.5. Miscellaneous Insurance
2.6.2.6. Industrial All Risks Insurance
2.6.2.7. Public Liability Insurance
2.6.2.8. Engineering Insurance
2.6.2.9. Aviation Insurance
2.6.2.10. Health Insurance
2.6.2.11. Personal Accident Insurance
2.6.2.12. Other Insurance
2.6.3. Company Profiles
2.6.3.1. American International Assurance company (AIA), Thailand
2.6.3.2. ACE INA Overseas Insurance Company Limited
2.6.3.3. Ayudhya Insurance Public Company Limited
2.6.3.4. Ayudhya Allianz C.P. Life Public Company Limited
2.6.3.5. Bangkok Insurance Public Company Limited
2.6.3.6. Bangkok Union Insurance
2.6.3.7. Charan Insurance
2.6.3.8. Deves Insurance
2.6.3.9. ING Life Limited
2.6.3.10. Indara Insurance
2.6.3.11. Manulife Insurance (Thailand) Public Company Limited
2.6.3.12. MSIG Insurance
2.6.3.13. QBE Insurance (Thailand) Company Limited
2.6.3.14. Sri Muang Insurance
2.6.3.15. The Viriyah Insurance Co., Ltd.
List of Tables
Table 1: Macroeconomic Trends: Population (mil.) vs. Nominal GDP ($ bil.) – 2002-2011f
Table 2: Macroeconomic Trends: GDP per capital ($ bil.) vs. Real GDP Growth (%) – 2003-2011f
Table 3: Growth Trends: Inflation (2002-2008f)
Table 4: Key Economic Indicators Forecast – 2007-2012f
Table 5: Growth Trend Comparison: GDP Growth vs. Insurance Growth (%) – 2000-2011
Table 6: Thailand Insurance Market Value ($million): 2000-2007
Table 7: Thailand Insurance Market Value Forecast ($million): 2007-2011f
Table 8 : Insurance Density: Premiums Per Capita in USD
Table 9: Insurance Premium in % of GDP (2001-2011f)
Table 10: Growth Trend of Life Insurance and Non-Life Insurance ($Million): 2000-2011f
Table 11: Thailand Life Insurance Market Value ($million): 2000-2007
Table 12: Thailand Life Insurance Market Value Forecast ($million): 2007-2011f
Table 13: Thailand Non-Life Insurance Market Value ($million): 2000-2007
Table 14: Thailand Non-Life Insurance Market Value Forecast ($million): 2007-2011f
Table 15: Thailand Insurance Sector: Projections of Macroeconomic Drivers (2006-2010f)
Table 16: Market Share of Top Players in Life Insurance Sector: Comparison between 2006 & 2007 (Million Baht) and their Growth (%)
Table 17: Life Insurance Total Premium Growth Year on Year by Company 2006-2007 (%)
Table 18: Life Insurance Market Growth by First Year Premium of Top Companies: Comparison between 2006 & 2007 (mn Baht)
Table 19: Life Insurance Market Growth by First Year Premium of Top Companies: Comparison between 2006 & 2007 (%)
Table 20: Life Insurance Premium Renewal (million Baht) and Growth (%) Year on Year for Top Companies (2006-2007)
Table 21: Life Insurance Renewal Market Share of Top Companies in 2007 (mn Baht)
Table 22: Life Insurance Single Premium Market Share of Top Companies in 2007 (mn Baht & % growth)
Table 23: Loss Ratio of Non - Life Insurance Business (2007)
Table 24: Marine and Transportation Companies: Markey Share by Direct Premium (Unit: 1,000 Baht)
Table 25: Automobile Insurance Top companies by Direct Premium (2007)
Table 26: Top Miscellaneous Non-Life Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium (%) – 2007
Table 27: Top Industrial All Risk Non-Life Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium – 2007
Table 28: Top Public Liability Non-Life Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium – 2007
Table 29: Top Engineering Non-Life Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium (%) – 2007
Table 30: Top Aviation Non-Life Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium – 2007
Table 31: Top Health Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium – 2007
Table 32: Top Personal Accident Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium – 2007
Table 33: Top Other Non-Life Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium – 2007
List of Charts
Chart 1: Macroeconomic Trends: Population (mil.) vs. Nominal GDP ($ bil.) – 2002-2011f
Chart 2: Macroeconomic Trends: GDP per capital ($ bil.) vs. Real GDP Growth (%) – 2003-2011f
Chart 3: Growth Trends: Inflation (2002-2008f)
Chart 4: Key Economic Indicators Forecast (2007-2012f)
Chart 5: Growth Trend Comparison: GDP Growth vs. Insurance Growth (%) – 2000-2011f
Chart 6: Thailand Insurance Market Value ($billion): 2000-2007
Chart 7: Thailand Insurance Market Value Forecast ($million): 2007-2011f
Chart 8: Insurance Density: Premiums Per Capita in USD
Chart 9: Insurance Premium in % of GDP (2001-2011f)
Chart 10: Thailand Insurance Market: Segment Share 2007
Chart 11: Growth Trend of Life Insurance and Non-Life Insurance ($Million): 2000-2011f
Chart 12: Thailand Life Insurance Market Value ($million): 2000-2007
Chart 13: Thailand Life Insurance Market Value Forecast ($million): 2007-2011f
Chart 14: Thailand Non-Life Insurance Market Value ($million): 2000-2007
Chart 15: Thailand Non-Life Insurance Market Value Forecast ($million): 2007-2011f
Chart 16: Market Segmentation of Non-Life Insurance (%): 2007
Chart 17: Market Segmentation of Non-Life Companies by Ownership 2007 (%)
Chart 18: Comparison of Direct Premiums of Non - Life Insurance Business (2007 & 2006)
Chart 19: Direct Premium per Insurance Policy for 2007-2006 (Baht)
Chart 20: Comparison of Sum Insured Per Premium of Non - Life Insurance Business Segments (2007 & 2006)
Chart 21: Loss Ratio of Non - Life Insurance Business (2007)
Chart 22: Market Share of Top Life Insurance Companies by Total Premium in 2007 (%)
Chart 23: Life Insurance First Year Premium Market Segment in 2007 by Top Companies (%)
Chart 24: Life Insurance Premium Renewal (million Baht) and Growth (%) Year on Year for Top Companies (2006-2007)
Chart 25: Life Insurance Renewal Market Share of Top Companies in 2007 (%)
Chart 26: Single Insurance Premium Company Segmentation 2007
Chart 27: Fire Insurance Companies – Market Share (%): 2007
Chart 28: Marine & Transport Insurance Segment Share (%): 2007
Chart 29: Cargo and Hull Market: Direct Premium Share (%) in 2006-2007
Chart 30: Marine and Transportation Companies: Markey Share by Direct Premium (Unit: 1,000 Baht)
Chart 31: Market Share of Automobile Insurance Sub Sector 2007
Chart 32: Automobile Insurance Top Companies – Market Share by Direct Premium (%) – 2007
Chart 33: Market Share of Miscellaneous Non-Life Sector (%) – 2007
Chart 34: Top Miscellaneous Non-Life Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium (%) – 2007
Chart 35: Top Industrial All Risk Non-Life Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium (%) – 2007
Chart 36: Top Public Liability Non-Life Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium (%) – 2007
Chart 37: Top Engineering Non-Life Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium (%) – 2007
Chart 38: Top Aviation Non-Life Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium (%) – 2007
Chart 39: Top Health Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium (%) – 2007
Chart 40: Top Personal Accident Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium (%) – 2007
Chart 41: Top Other Non-Life Insurance Companies: Market Share by Direct Premium (%) – 2007
Pages: 163
Indian Insurance Market
Authors: Nishith Srivastava & Akash Rakyan
Indian economy is the 12th largest in the world, with a GDP of $1.25 trillion and 3rd largest in terms of purchasing power parity. With factors like a stable 8-9 per cent annual growth, rising foreign exchange reserves, a booming capital market and a rapidly expanding FDI inflows, it is on the fulcrum of an ever increasing growth curve.
Insurance is one major sector which has been on a continuous growth curve since the revival of Indian economy. Taking into account the huge population and growing per capita income besides several other driving factors, a huge opportunity is in store for the insurance companies in India. According to the latest research findings, nearly 80% of Indian population is without life insurance cover while health insurance and non-life insurance continues to be below international standards. And this part of the population is also subjected to weak social security and pension systems with hardly any old age income security. As per our findings, insurance in India is primarily used as a means to improve personal finances and for income tax planning; Indians have a tendency to invest in properties and gold followed by bank deposits. They selectively invest in shares also but the percentage is very small--4-5%. This in itself is an indicator that growth potential for the insurance sector is immense. It’s a business growing at the rate of 15-20% per annum and presently is of the order of $47.9 billion.
India is a vast market for life insurance that is directly proportional to the growth in premiums and an increase in life density. With the entry of private sector players backed by foreign expertise, Indian insurance market has become more vibrant. Competition in this market is increasing with companies continues effort to lure the customers with new product offerings. However, the market share of private insurance companies remains very low -- in the 10-15% range. Even to this day, Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) of India dominates Indian insurance sector. The heavy hand of government still dominates the market, with price controls, limits on ownership, and other restraints.
In 2000, Indian insurance market size was $21.71 billion. Between 2000 and 2007, it had an increase of 120% and reached $47.89 billion. Between 2000 and 2007, total premiums maintained an average growth rate of 11.96% and the CAGR growth during this time frame has been 11.96%. It was one of the most consistent growth patterns we have noticed in any other emerging economies in Asian as well as Global markets.
Major Driving Factors
=> Growing demand from semi-urban population
=> Entry of private players following the deregulation
=> Rising demand for retirement provision in the ageing population
=> The opening of the pension sector and the establishment of the new pension regulator
=> Rising per capita incomes among the strong middle class, and spreading affluence
=> Growing consumer class and increase in spending & saving capacity
=> Public private partnerships infrastructure development
=> Dearth of innovative & buyer-friendly insurance products
=> Success of Auto insurance sector
Emerging Areas
=> Healthcare Insurance & Pension Plans
=> Mutual fund linked insurance products
=> Multiple Distribution Networks .i.e. Bancassurance
The upward growth trend started from 2000 was mainly due to economic policies adopted by the then Indian government. This year saw initiation of an era of economic liberalization and globalization in the Indian economy followed by several reforms and long-term policies that created a perfect roadmap for the success of Indian financial markets. On the basis of several macroeconomic factors like increase in literacy rate & per capita income, decrease in death rate and unemployment, better tax rebates, growing GDP etc., we estimate that the Indian insurance sector will grow by $28.65 billion and reach $76.54 billion by 2011 with a CAGR of 12.44% and a growth of 59.82%.
The Indian life insurance market generated total revenues of $41.36 billion in 2007, this representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.84% for the period spanning 2000-2007. Life insurance market had a growth of $22.46 billion within a period of 7 years with a growth rate of 118.24%. Estimated life premiums rose from INR1,470,800 million ($36.77 billion) in 2006 to INR1,301,540 million ($32.54billion) in 2005. We envisage that life premiums in 2011 will be $65.96 billion, a growth larger than they were in 2007. The performance of the market is forecast to accelerate, with an anticipated CAGR of 9.78% for the four-year period 2007-2011 expected to drive the market to a value of $65.96 billion by the end of 2011. There would be a growth of $24.6 billion i.e. 59.48% in the next 4 years.
Non-life premiums in India were $6.53 billion in 2007. Gross written premium (GWP) in the Indian non-life insurance market reached a value of $5.75 billion in 2006, this representing an annual growth of 13.55% for the period spanning 2006-2007. Estimated non-life premiums rose from INR230 billion ($5.75 billion) in 2006 to INR261 billion ($6.53 billion) in 2007. We anticipate that non-life premiums will grow by a CAGR of 9.40% between 2007-2011. We are looking for non-life premiums to rise by $405 million over the five years to the end of 2011 with a growth rate of 62.02%.
Topics covered in the report
=> Trend analysis of Indian economy and growing macroeconomic factors and
=> India’s position in the context of emerging countries
=> Historical growth trends & growth drivers of Insurance & its sub-sectors in India and outlook till 2011.
=> Market size of insurance sector (total, life & non-life) since 2000 till 2007
=> Market forecast of insurance sector (total, life & non-life) between 2007 and 2011
=> Key issues & challenges, major trends & opportunities
=> Government’s initiatives to promote & regulate the insurance market
=> Competitive landscape and market share of top players
=> And many more...
Table of Contents
METHODOLOGY & RESEARCH APPROACH
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. INDIA
1.1. ECONOMY
1.1.1. Performance in FY2007
1.1.2. Growing Per Capita Income
1.1.3. Macroeconomic trends
1.1.4. Future predictions
1.2. GOVERNMENT POLICIES
2. INDIAN INSURANCE SECTOR
2.1. MARKET OVERVIEW
2.1.1.Insurance Sector vs. Macro-economic factors
2.2. MARKET PERFORMANCE & FORECAST (2000-2011)
2.2.1. Indian Insurance Market
2.2.1.1.Indian Life Insurance Market
2.2.1.2. Indian Non-Life Insurance Market
2.3.DRIVING FACTORS
2.3.1. Opening of Pension sector
2.3.2. Growing Per Capita Income & Changing Demographics
2.3.3. Macro-Economic and Demographic Growth Drivers
2.3.4. Other Major Drivers
2.4. TRENDS, ISSUES AND OPPORTUNITIES – AN ANALYSIS
2.4.1. Major Issues
2.4.2. Emerging sectors for Insurance
2.4.3. Emergence of Multiple Distribution Networks
2.4.4. Consolidation of Distribution Strategy
2.4.5. Targeting niche customer base with customized products
2.4.6. Stagnating premium growth and underlying opportunity
2.4.7. The Deregulation of the Insurance Market in India (w.e.f. Jan 1,07)
2.4.8. Proposed stages of removal of the tariffs
2.4.9. Insurance sector driving Indian CRM market
2.4.10. Product Preferences among Consumers
2.4.11. Success of Auto Insurance Sector
2.4.12. Other major hurdles
2.5. GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS
2.5.1. Insurance Acts
2.5.2. Government backed insurance schemes
2.5.3. Reforms in Insurance Sector
2.6. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
2.6.1. Competition in Life Insurance Sector
2.6.1.1. Market Share & Segmentation
2.6.1.2. Life Insurance - Five Forces Analysis
2.6.2. Competition in Non-Life Insurance Sector
2.6.2.1. Market Share & Segmentation
2.6.2.2. Non-Life Insurance - Five Forces Analysis
2.7. COMPANY PROFILES – TOP PLAYERS
2.7.1. Bajaj Allianz General Insurance Co. Ltd
2.7.2. ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company
2.7.3. IFFCO-TOKIO General Insurance (ITGI)
2.7.4. National Insurance Company Limited
2.7.5. The New India Assurance Co. Ltd.
2.7.6. The Oriental Insurance Company Limited
2.7.7. Reliance General Insurance
2.7.8. Royal Sundaram Alliance Insurance Co. Ltd
2.7.9. Tata AIG General
2.7.10.United India Insurance Company Limited
2.7.11.Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance Company Limited
2.7.12.ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company
Pages: 127
Format: PDF
List of Charts
Chart 1: GDP growth, per capita income and size of country by GDP in 2014f
Chart 2: Macroeconomic Data & Factors
Chart 3: Government Debt- India (% of GDP)
Chart 4: Annual Inflation Rate (CPI) - India %
Chart 5: Total Premium Growth vs. GDP Growth (%) – 2000-2007e
Chart 6: Life Insurance vs. Non-Life Insurance vs. Total Premium vs. GDP (%) – 2000-2008f
Chart 7: India Insurance Market Value ($ billion): 2000-2007e
Chart 8: India Insurance Market Value Forecast ($ billion): 2008-2011f
Chart 9: India Insurance Market: Segment Share (2007e)
Chart 10: India Life Insurance Market Value ($billion): 2000-2007e
Chart 11: Asia-Pacific Life Insurance Market Segmentation: % share in 2006e
Chart 12: India Life Insurance Market Share: % Share, by Value, 2006-2007e
Chart 13: India Life Insurance Market Value Forecast ($billion): 2008-2011f
Chart 14: India Non-Life Insurance Market Value ($billion): 2000-2007e
Chart 15: India Non-Life Insurance Market Value Forecast ($billion): 2007-2011f
Chart 16: Sub-sector share of Non-life Insurance Market in India (2007e)
Chart 17: India Non-life Insurance Market Share: % Share, by Value, 2006-2007e
Chart 18: Market Share of leading life insurance companies in India (% share) – 2007e
Chart 19: India Life Insurance Market Segmentation (%share & $billion value): 2010-2011f
Chart 20: India Non-Life Insurance Market Segmentation (%share & $billion value): 2006-2007e
Chart 21: India Non-Life Insurance Market Segmentation (%share & $billion value): 2010-2011f
List of Tables
Table 1: GDP Growth (2002-07)
Table 2: Total Premium Growth & GDP Growth (%) – 2000-2007
Table 3: Growth (%): Life Insurance vs. Non-Life Insurance vs. Total Premium vs. GDP (%) – 2000-2008f
Table 4: India Insurance Market Value ($billion): 2000-2007e
Table 5: India Insurance Market Value Forecast ($ billion): 2008-2011f
Table 6: India Life Insurance Market Value ($billion): 2000-2007e
Table 7: Asia-Pacific Life Insurance Market Segmentation: % share in 2006
Table 8: India Life Insurance Market Share: % Share, by Value, 2006-2007e
Table 9: India Life Insurance Market Value Forecast ($billion): 2008-2011f
Table 10: India Non-Life Insurance Market Value ($billion): 2000-2007e
Table 11: India Non-Life Insurance Market Value Forecast ($billion): 2007-2011f
Table 12: India Non- Life Insurance Market Share: % Share, by Value, 2006-2007e
Table 13: India Insurance Market Segmentation (%share & $billion values): 2006-2007e
Table 14: India Insurance Market Segmentation (%share & $billion value): 2010-2011f
Table 15: Market Share of leading life insurance companies in India – 2007e
Table 16: India Life Insurance Market Segmentation (%share & $billion value): 2010-2011f
Table 17: India Non-Life Insurance Market Segmentation (%share & $billion value): 2006-2007e
Table 18: India Non-Life Insurance Market Segmentation (%share & $billion value): 2010-2011f
Indian economy is the 12th largest in the world, with a GDP of $1.25 trillion and 3rd largest in terms of purchasing power parity. With factors like a stable 8-9 per cent annual growth, rising foreign exchange reserves, a booming capital market and a rapidly expanding FDI inflows, it is on the fulcrum of an ever increasing growth curve.
Insurance is one major sector which has been on a continuous growth curve since the revival of Indian economy. Taking into account the huge population and growing per capita income besides several other driving factors, a huge opportunity is in store for the insurance companies in India. According to the latest research findings, nearly 80% of Indian population is without life insurance cover while health insurance and non-life insurance continues to be below international standards. And this part of the population is also subjected to weak social security and pension systems with hardly any old age income security. As per our findings, insurance in India is primarily used as a means to improve personal finances and for income tax planning; Indians have a tendency to invest in properties and gold followed by bank deposits. They selectively invest in shares also but the percentage is very small--4-5%. This in itself is an indicator that growth potential for the insurance sector is immense. It’s a business growing at the rate of 15-20% per annum and presently is of the order of $47.9 billion.
India is a vast market for life insurance that is directly proportional to the growth in premiums and an increase in life density. With the entry of private sector players backed by foreign expertise, Indian insurance market has become more vibrant. Competition in this market is increasing with companies continues effort to lure the customers with new product offerings. However, the market share of private insurance companies remains very low -- in the 10-15% range. Even to this day, Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) of India dominates Indian insurance sector. The heavy hand of government still dominates the market, with price controls, limits on ownership, and other restraints.
In 2000, Indian insurance market size was $21.71 billion. Between 2000 and 2007, it had an increase of 120% and reached $47.89 billion. Between 2000 and 2007, total premiums maintained an average growth rate of 11.96% and the CAGR growth during this time frame has been 11.96%. It was one of the most consistent growth patterns we have noticed in any other emerging economies in Asian as well as Global markets.
Major Driving Factors
=> Growing demand from semi-urban population
=> Entry of private players following the deregulation
=> Rising demand for retirement provision in the ageing population
=> The opening of the pension sector and the establishment of the new pension regulator
=> Rising per capita incomes among the strong middle class, and spreading affluence
=> Growing consumer class and increase in spending & saving capacity
=> Public private partnerships infrastructure development
=> Dearth of innovative & buyer-friendly insurance products
=> Success of Auto insurance sector
Emerging Areas
=> Healthcare Insurance & Pension Plans
=> Mutual fund linked insurance products
=> Multiple Distribution Networks .i.e. Bancassurance
The upward growth trend started from 2000 was mainly due to economic policies adopted by the then Indian government. This year saw initiation of an era of economic liberalization and globalization in the Indian economy followed by several reforms and long-term policies that created a perfect roadmap for the success of Indian financial markets. On the basis of several macroeconomic factors like increase in literacy rate & per capita income, decrease in death rate and unemployment, better tax rebates, growing GDP etc., we estimate that the Indian insurance sector will grow by $28.65 billion and reach $76.54 billion by 2011 with a CAGR of 12.44% and a growth of 59.82%.
The Indian life insurance market generated total revenues of $41.36 billion in 2007, this representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.84% for the period spanning 2000-2007. Life insurance market had a growth of $22.46 billion within a period of 7 years with a growth rate of 118.24%. Estimated life premiums rose from INR1,470,800 million ($36.77 billion) in 2006 to INR1,301,540 million ($32.54billion) in 2005. We envisage that life premiums in 2011 will be $65.96 billion, a growth larger than they were in 2007. The performance of the market is forecast to accelerate, with an anticipated CAGR of 9.78% for the four-year period 2007-2011 expected to drive the market to a value of $65.96 billion by the end of 2011. There would be a growth of $24.6 billion i.e. 59.48% in the next 4 years.
Non-life premiums in India were $6.53 billion in 2007. Gross written premium (GWP) in the Indian non-life insurance market reached a value of $5.75 billion in 2006, this representing an annual growth of 13.55% for the period spanning 2006-2007. Estimated non-life premiums rose from INR230 billion ($5.75 billion) in 2006 to INR261 billion ($6.53 billion) in 2007. We anticipate that non-life premiums will grow by a CAGR of 9.40% between 2007-2011. We are looking for non-life premiums to rise by $405 million over the five years to the end of 2011 with a growth rate of 62.02%.
Topics covered in the report
=> Trend analysis of Indian economy and growing macroeconomic factors and
=> India’s position in the context of emerging countries
=> Historical growth trends & growth drivers of Insurance & its sub-sectors in India and outlook till 2011.
=> Market size of insurance sector (total, life & non-life) since 2000 till 2007
=> Market forecast of insurance sector (total, life & non-life) between 2007 and 2011
=> Key issues & challenges, major trends & opportunities
=> Government’s initiatives to promote & regulate the insurance market
=> Competitive landscape and market share of top players
=> And many more...
Table of Contents
METHODOLOGY & RESEARCH APPROACH
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. INDIA
1.1. ECONOMY
1.1.1. Performance in FY2007
1.1.2. Growing Per Capita Income
1.1.3. Macroeconomic trends
1.1.4. Future predictions
1.2. GOVERNMENT POLICIES
2. INDIAN INSURANCE SECTOR
2.1. MARKET OVERVIEW
2.1.1.Insurance Sector vs. Macro-economic factors
2.2. MARKET PERFORMANCE & FORECAST (2000-2011)
2.2.1. Indian Insurance Market
2.2.1.1.Indian Life Insurance Market
2.2.1.2. Indian Non-Life Insurance Market
2.3.DRIVING FACTORS
2.3.1. Opening of Pension sector
2.3.2. Growing Per Capita Income & Changing Demographics
2.3.3. Macro-Economic and Demographic Growth Drivers
2.3.4. Other Major Drivers
2.4. TRENDS, ISSUES AND OPPORTUNITIES – AN ANALYSIS
2.4.1. Major Issues
2.4.2. Emerging sectors for Insurance
2.4.3. Emergence of Multiple Distribution Networks
2.4.4. Consolidation of Distribution Strategy
2.4.5. Targeting niche customer base with customized products
2.4.6. Stagnating premium growth and underlying opportunity
2.4.7. The Deregulation of the Insurance Market in India (w.e.f. Jan 1,07)
2.4.8. Proposed stages of removal of the tariffs
2.4.9. Insurance sector driving Indian CRM market
2.4.10. Product Preferences among Consumers
2.4.11. Success of Auto Insurance Sector
2.4.12. Other major hurdles
2.5. GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS
2.5.1. Insurance Acts
2.5.2. Government backed insurance schemes
2.5.3. Reforms in Insurance Sector
2.6. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
2.6.1. Competition in Life Insurance Sector
2.6.1.1. Market Share & Segmentation
2.6.1.2. Life Insurance - Five Forces Analysis
2.6.2. Competition in Non-Life Insurance Sector
2.6.2.1. Market Share & Segmentation
2.6.2.2. Non-Life Insurance - Five Forces Analysis
2.7. COMPANY PROFILES – TOP PLAYERS
2.7.1. Bajaj Allianz General Insurance Co. Ltd
2.7.2. ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company
2.7.3. IFFCO-TOKIO General Insurance (ITGI)
2.7.4. National Insurance Company Limited
2.7.5. The New India Assurance Co. Ltd.
2.7.6. The Oriental Insurance Company Limited
2.7.7. Reliance General Insurance
2.7.8. Royal Sundaram Alliance Insurance Co. Ltd
2.7.9. Tata AIG General
2.7.10.United India Insurance Company Limited
2.7.11.Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance Company Limited
2.7.12.ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company
Pages: 127
Format: PDF
List of Charts
Chart 1: GDP growth, per capita income and size of country by GDP in 2014f
Chart 2: Macroeconomic Data & Factors
Chart 3: Government Debt- India (% of GDP)
Chart 4: Annual Inflation Rate (CPI) - India %
Chart 5: Total Premium Growth vs. GDP Growth (%) – 2000-2007e
Chart 6: Life Insurance vs. Non-Life Insurance vs. Total Premium vs. GDP (%) – 2000-2008f
Chart 7: India Insurance Market Value ($ billion): 2000-2007e
Chart 8: India Insurance Market Value Forecast ($ billion): 2008-2011f
Chart 9: India Insurance Market: Segment Share (2007e)
Chart 10: India Life Insurance Market Value ($billion): 2000-2007e
Chart 11: Asia-Pacific Life Insurance Market Segmentation: % share in 2006e
Chart 12: India Life Insurance Market Share: % Share, by Value, 2006-2007e
Chart 13: India Life Insurance Market Value Forecast ($billion): 2008-2011f
Chart 14: India Non-Life Insurance Market Value ($billion): 2000-2007e
Chart 15: India Non-Life Insurance Market Value Forecast ($billion): 2007-2011f
Chart 16: Sub-sector share of Non-life Insurance Market in India (2007e)
Chart 17: India Non-life Insurance Market Share: % Share, by Value, 2006-2007e
Chart 18: Market Share of leading life insurance companies in India (% share) – 2007e
Chart 19: India Life Insurance Market Segmentation (%share & $billion value): 2010-2011f
Chart 20: India Non-Life Insurance Market Segmentation (%share & $billion value): 2006-2007e
Chart 21: India Non-Life Insurance Market Segmentation (%share & $billion value): 2010-2011f
List of Tables
Table 1: GDP Growth (2002-07)
Table 2: Total Premium Growth & GDP Growth (%) – 2000-2007
Table 3: Growth (%): Life Insurance vs. Non-Life Insurance vs. Total Premium vs. GDP (%) – 2000-2008f
Table 4: India Insurance Market Value ($billion): 2000-2007e
Table 5: India Insurance Market Value Forecast ($ billion): 2008-2011f
Table 6: India Life Insurance Market Value ($billion): 2000-2007e
Table 7: Asia-Pacific Life Insurance Market Segmentation: % share in 2006
Table 8: India Life Insurance Market Share: % Share, by Value, 2006-2007e
Table 9: India Life Insurance Market Value Forecast ($billion): 2008-2011f
Table 10: India Non-Life Insurance Market Value ($billion): 2000-2007e
Table 11: India Non-Life Insurance Market Value Forecast ($billion): 2007-2011f
Table 12: India Non- Life Insurance Market Share: % Share, by Value, 2006-2007e
Table 13: India Insurance Market Segmentation (%share & $billion values): 2006-2007e
Table 14: India Insurance Market Segmentation (%share & $billion value): 2010-2011f
Table 15: Market Share of leading life insurance companies in India – 2007e
Table 16: India Life Insurance Market Segmentation (%share & $billion value): 2010-2011f
Table 17: India Non-Life Insurance Market Segmentation (%share & $billion value): 2006-2007e
Table 18: India Non-Life Insurance Market Segmentation (%share & $billion value): 2010-2011f
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
20 Indian firms among world's top 100 in outsourcing
According to Silicon India:
Reflecting strong growth of the Indian industry, 20 Indian firms have successfully made it to the list of top 100 outsourcing companies in the world.
The latest '2008 Global Outsourcing 100', compiled by the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals (IAOP) that features 20 Indian firms has five of them - Infosys (ranked 3), TCS (6), Wipro (7), Genpact (9) and Tech Mahindra (10) among the top 10. All five are leading software service providers.
In the list, Accenture is on the top slot and IBM comes second. Companies on the list averaged $1.7 billion in annual sales and engaged 27,000 employees across the world.
Other Indian companies in the list are HCL Technology (11) Mastek (16), WNS Global Services (19), Hexaware (22), ExlService (26), 24/7 Customer (28), Cambridge (36), ITC Infotech (40), KPIT Cummins (42), Patni (46), Zensar (53), MindTree (54), Mphasis (56), Aditya Birla Minacs (62), FirstSource Solutions (73) and VCustomer (84).
According to IAOP, the key strength of Wipro and TCS is their 'employee management' while 'executive leadership' is cited as the strong point of Infosys and Genpact.
On the other hand, 'outsourcing experience' is attributed as the main strength of Tech Mahindra and HCL Technologies. The power balance in the outsourcing industry is shifting. Global competition in outsourcing is intensifying and that was reflected in this years ranking with companies from 19 countries vying for recognition, IAOP's Managing Director, thought leadership and who head the judges panel, Jagdish Dalal said.
In last year's list, there were five Indian firms in the top 10 - Wipro, Infosys, Genpact, Tech Mahindra and Cambridge.
Reflecting strong growth of the Indian industry, 20 Indian firms have successfully made it to the list of top 100 outsourcing companies in the world.
The latest '2008 Global Outsourcing 100', compiled by the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals (IAOP) that features 20 Indian firms has five of them - Infosys (ranked 3), TCS (6), Wipro (7), Genpact (9) and Tech Mahindra (10) among the top 10. All five are leading software service providers.
In the list, Accenture is on the top slot and IBM comes second. Companies on the list averaged $1.7 billion in annual sales and engaged 27,000 employees across the world.
Other Indian companies in the list are HCL Technology (11) Mastek (16), WNS Global Services (19), Hexaware (22), ExlService (26), 24/7 Customer (28), Cambridge (36), ITC Infotech (40), KPIT Cummins (42), Patni (46), Zensar (53), MindTree (54), Mphasis (56), Aditya Birla Minacs (62), FirstSource Solutions (73) and VCustomer (84).
According to IAOP, the key strength of Wipro and TCS is their 'employee management' while 'executive leadership' is cited as the strong point of Infosys and Genpact.
On the other hand, 'outsourcing experience' is attributed as the main strength of Tech Mahindra and HCL Technologies. The power balance in the outsourcing industry is shifting. Global competition in outsourcing is intensifying and that was reflected in this years ranking with companies from 19 countries vying for recognition, IAOP's Managing Director, thought leadership and who head the judges panel, Jagdish Dalal said.
In last year's list, there were five Indian firms in the top 10 - Wipro, Infosys, Genpact, Tech Mahindra and Cambridge.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Profile of Tata Companies - An analysis
Excerpts sourced from Economic Times and TNN
TATA MOTORS
Competencies & Opportunities: Tata Motors has some new offerings on the block. This includes the 200-500 horse power ‘World Truck’ for the global market. It has also taken a huge stride to grow inorganically by acquiring the business of Ford under the brands, Jaguar and Land Rover. New models such as Sumo Grande and the Rs 1-lakh Nano car are likely to give a fillip to the domestic business.
Challenges: Higher interest rate may dampen the demand for cars. Rising cost of key raw materials such as steel and aluminium will put pressure on margins. Turning around of the Jaguar Land Rover business into a higher profitable business is a major challenge. Positioning of the Tata brand over such a wide variety of vehicles segments starting from the cheapest Tata Nano to the luxury brands like Jaguar will not be easy.
TATA STEEL
Competencies & Opportunities: The Corus acquisition will give Tata Steel the access to global markets and higher volumes. The strong outlook for global as well as domestic steel sector will improve sales realisation. Acquisition of iron ore and coking coal mines in different parts of the globe will improve the operating margin of Corus and contribute more towards the bottomline of the combined entity. The new greenfield and brownfield projects in Orissa, Jharkhand and Chhatisgarh will add significantly to the topline.
Challenges: The higher inflation and pressure from the domestic government might force steel producers to reduce domestic steel prices, resulting in lower profit margins. The higher synergy from Corus will come through only if Tata Steel manages to integrate it successfully.
TCS
Competencies & Opportunities: TCS has been focussing on contracts with larger deal size and time span. This helps in increasing client engagement. Broadening of deliverables will also help in improving competence in the global market for IT services. TCS has opened delivery centres in low-cost destinations of Asia and Latin America. Such a multi-shore delivery strategy comes in handy in times of economic slowdown and lower IT spends by the clients. Presence in the domestic market is worthwhile in the scenario of a stronger home economy and depreciating dollar.
Challenges: Exposure to dollar denominated income increases risk of margin erosion given appreciating rupee. Slowdown in the US may impact the IT budgets of the US clients. This may retard the topline growth. Competition from MNCs in India will intensify. TCS has to come up with firm strategies for its domestic business.
TATA POWER
Competencies & Opportunities: Tata Power is India’s largest private sector power utility with installed capacity in excess of 2,300 mw. Over 600 mw new capacity is likely to be added during FY09, with another 8,000 mw capacity to be added over the next five years including a 4,000-mw UMPP at Mundra. TPL has acquired a 30% stake in two major Indonesian coal producers to assure future fuel requirements. It is emerging as an integrated player in India's power sector with investments in power generation, transmission, distribution and fuel supplies (coal mining and transport).
Challenges: Meeting the time and cost deadlines while executing the long gestation projects is a big challenge as the costs of equipment and project implementation services have gone up substantially. Even after the successful completion of its projects, TPL has to manage the regulatory environment well to ensure sufficient return on its investments.
INDIAN HOTELS
Competencies & Opportunities: Indian Hotels runs the largest domestic hotel chain with 71 hotels and an inventory of 10,487 rooms. It enjoys presence across wide range of hotels right from deluxe properties to budget. This puts the company in a bright spot and helps it take advantage of the growing tourism industry in India. Besides, the company has 14 properties overseas and is expanding its global footprint via acquisitions and greenfield ventures. This is likely to result in greater brand recognition abroad. Its recent entry into lucrative segment of business jets will help the company to take advantage of growing opportunities in this space.
Challenges: Its revenue is greatly dependent on India, where average room rates are expected to see a decline beyond FY09 when supply starts coming in. Rising real estate costs have greatly reduced the return on capital on new properties in major cities.
TATA TEA
Competencies & Opportunities: The company has taken initiatives to introduce different variants of tea. It has also forayed into bottled water and other beverages. This is likely to help it transform itself from a tea company to a beverages company. Acquisitions, geographic expansion and new products are the way to go for Tata Tea, which is already the second largest integrated tea company in the world. Its retail foray through ‘Chai Unchai’ beverage stores is likely to open a new route of growth for the company.
Challenges: Tata Tea operates in a labour-intensive tea industry, which has long gestation periods. This can be an imepdiment in improving operational efficiency. The company will have to grapple with the increase in raw material prices. The appreciation in the rupee is likely to drag profitability of the international businesses.
TATA COMMUNICATIONS
Competencies & Opportunities: Utilisation of existing infrastructure to deliver valueadded services is a sound proposition for Tata Communications. The company recently tied up with Telsima to provide WiMAX services in the country. It has also launched its global telepresence network service to offer virtual meeting solutions. These initiatives will fuel future revenue growth. Tata Comm’s strategy to build global tie-ups for high-end technologies will help it keep pace with the fast-changing technology scenario and improve its global presence.
Challenges: Tata Comm needs to increase focus on deploying managed services, given the stiff competition in domestic as well as global enterprise data space from bigger telecom operators. The company has to improve operational processes in order to increase customer base for its broadband and other services rapidly.
TATA CHEMICALS
Competencies & Opportunities: The recent acquisition of US-based General Chemicals has consolidated position of Tata Chemicals (TCL) in the global soda ash market. Post-acquisition, TCL has become the second largest soda ash manufacturer in the world with majority of the production coming from cheaper natural sources. This goes well with its overall global strategy. TCL is already on an expansion spree for its inorganic chemicals and fertilisers plants in India. This will help it to strengthen its domestic presence. TCL is setting up a 30,000-litres-per-day ethanol plant and has ventured into wholesaling of fresh agricultural produce. This diversification would help in mitigating risk from slowdown in the core business.
Challenges: TCL has to see through an effective integration strategy of its soda ash business with the overseas acquisition. Managing overall growth of the company will be a tough task given the diversification into new business domains.
VOLTAS
Competencies & Opportunities: Voltas is a market leader in central air-conditioning and climate control business in India, besides being a major player in booming West Asia. It is also India's leading distributor and re-seller of textile and mining equipment. Recently it went through a corporate restructuring which has transformed it into a leaner and competitive player. The demand for central A/Cs and climate control systems is booming, thanks to rapid growth in retail, real estate and hospitality sectors. It has also got a boost from strong capex in textile, mining and retail sectors where it supplies forklifts.
Challenges: Being a capital goods supplier, it's highly prone to an economic downturn. It faces strong competitors across its product portfolio. The consumer air-conditioner business continues to be a drag on the company's profitability.
TATA TELE (MAHA)
Competencies & Opportunities: The company is aggressively expanding its base in smaller circles. Increasing presence in high-growth telecom circles B and C will help the company grow its subscriber base rapidly from existing five million.
Challenges: Higher competition is likely to put further pressure on the company’s average revenue per user. This necessitates more focus on value-added services. The company currently provides mobile services on CDMA platform. Establishing a GSM footprint would be a challenging task given competition from bigger GSM players. The company needs to expand its operations in the field of managed services to stay competitive. The company lacks brand recognition. It has to establish its brand presence in the highly competitive
markets.
TITAN IND
Competencies & Opportunities: Titan has diversified into a wide consumer-centric product portfolio comprising time pieces, jewellery, eye wear, and precision equipment among others. A good pedigree, reputed brand standing and strong distribution and service network offer good prospects for the company to ride the boom in consumption. Expansion of retail stores, specially in tier II cities, will help the company increase profitability.
Challenges: Record high gold prices can lead to a drop in jewellery demand, restricting the company's growth in the business. International foray may not be very profitable in view of the global economic slowdown. Branded retail segment is fraught with intense competition. Dominance of unorganised players in the lower end of the watch market poses a challenge. Given rising incomes, Titan may have to face competition from international brands in the premium watch category.
TRENT
Competencies & Opportunities: After establishing its foothold in retail space through Westside stores, Trent is taking new initiatives of foraying into the premium segment. Recently, it joined forces with the Benetton Group for the expansion of the Sisley brand in India. It is tying up with designers to mark its presence in a range different from the private labels. This will help the company face stiff competition in the domestic retail space. Trent has reported good growth in the past few years. Revenues have grown consistently (CAGR of 55% from FY04-07). A sustained revenue model is necessary as it facilitates future expansion plans.
Challenges: The roll out of new stores has not been aggressive. The company has added only 19 stores from ’03 till date. Faces competition from aggressive players such as Pantaloon and new entrants including Reliance Retail.
TATA MOTORS
Competencies & Opportunities: Tata Motors has some new offerings on the block. This includes the 200-500 horse power ‘World Truck’ for the global market. It has also taken a huge stride to grow inorganically by acquiring the business of Ford under the brands, Jaguar and Land Rover. New models such as Sumo Grande and the Rs 1-lakh Nano car are likely to give a fillip to the domestic business.
Challenges: Higher interest rate may dampen the demand for cars. Rising cost of key raw materials such as steel and aluminium will put pressure on margins. Turning around of the Jaguar Land Rover business into a higher profitable business is a major challenge. Positioning of the Tata brand over such a wide variety of vehicles segments starting from the cheapest Tata Nano to the luxury brands like Jaguar will not be easy.
TATA STEEL
Competencies & Opportunities: The Corus acquisition will give Tata Steel the access to global markets and higher volumes. The strong outlook for global as well as domestic steel sector will improve sales realisation. Acquisition of iron ore and coking coal mines in different parts of the globe will improve the operating margin of Corus and contribute more towards the bottomline of the combined entity. The new greenfield and brownfield projects in Orissa, Jharkhand and Chhatisgarh will add significantly to the topline.
Challenges: The higher inflation and pressure from the domestic government might force steel producers to reduce domestic steel prices, resulting in lower profit margins. The higher synergy from Corus will come through only if Tata Steel manages to integrate it successfully.
TCS
Competencies & Opportunities: TCS has been focussing on contracts with larger deal size and time span. This helps in increasing client engagement. Broadening of deliverables will also help in improving competence in the global market for IT services. TCS has opened delivery centres in low-cost destinations of Asia and Latin America. Such a multi-shore delivery strategy comes in handy in times of economic slowdown and lower IT spends by the clients. Presence in the domestic market is worthwhile in the scenario of a stronger home economy and depreciating dollar.
Challenges: Exposure to dollar denominated income increases risk of margin erosion given appreciating rupee. Slowdown in the US may impact the IT budgets of the US clients. This may retard the topline growth. Competition from MNCs in India will intensify. TCS has to come up with firm strategies for its domestic business.
TATA POWER
Competencies & Opportunities: Tata Power is India’s largest private sector power utility with installed capacity in excess of 2,300 mw. Over 600 mw new capacity is likely to be added during FY09, with another 8,000 mw capacity to be added over the next five years including a 4,000-mw UMPP at Mundra. TPL has acquired a 30% stake in two major Indonesian coal producers to assure future fuel requirements. It is emerging as an integrated player in India's power sector with investments in power generation, transmission, distribution and fuel supplies (coal mining and transport).
Challenges: Meeting the time and cost deadlines while executing the long gestation projects is a big challenge as the costs of equipment and project implementation services have gone up substantially. Even after the successful completion of its projects, TPL has to manage the regulatory environment well to ensure sufficient return on its investments.
INDIAN HOTELS
Competencies & Opportunities: Indian Hotels runs the largest domestic hotel chain with 71 hotels and an inventory of 10,487 rooms. It enjoys presence across wide range of hotels right from deluxe properties to budget. This puts the company in a bright spot and helps it take advantage of the growing tourism industry in India. Besides, the company has 14 properties overseas and is expanding its global footprint via acquisitions and greenfield ventures. This is likely to result in greater brand recognition abroad. Its recent entry into lucrative segment of business jets will help the company to take advantage of growing opportunities in this space.
Challenges: Its revenue is greatly dependent on India, where average room rates are expected to see a decline beyond FY09 when supply starts coming in. Rising real estate costs have greatly reduced the return on capital on new properties in major cities.
TATA TEA
Competencies & Opportunities: The company has taken initiatives to introduce different variants of tea. It has also forayed into bottled water and other beverages. This is likely to help it transform itself from a tea company to a beverages company. Acquisitions, geographic expansion and new products are the way to go for Tata Tea, which is already the second largest integrated tea company in the world. Its retail foray through ‘Chai Unchai’ beverage stores is likely to open a new route of growth for the company.
Challenges: Tata Tea operates in a labour-intensive tea industry, which has long gestation periods. This can be an imepdiment in improving operational efficiency. The company will have to grapple with the increase in raw material prices. The appreciation in the rupee is likely to drag profitability of the international businesses.
TATA COMMUNICATIONS
Competencies & Opportunities: Utilisation of existing infrastructure to deliver valueadded services is a sound proposition for Tata Communications. The company recently tied up with Telsima to provide WiMAX services in the country. It has also launched its global telepresence network service to offer virtual meeting solutions. These initiatives will fuel future revenue growth. Tata Comm’s strategy to build global tie-ups for high-end technologies will help it keep pace with the fast-changing technology scenario and improve its global presence.
Challenges: Tata Comm needs to increase focus on deploying managed services, given the stiff competition in domestic as well as global enterprise data space from bigger telecom operators. The company has to improve operational processes in order to increase customer base for its broadband and other services rapidly.
TATA CHEMICALS
Competencies & Opportunities: The recent acquisition of US-based General Chemicals has consolidated position of Tata Chemicals (TCL) in the global soda ash market. Post-acquisition, TCL has become the second largest soda ash manufacturer in the world with majority of the production coming from cheaper natural sources. This goes well with its overall global strategy. TCL is already on an expansion spree for its inorganic chemicals and fertilisers plants in India. This will help it to strengthen its domestic presence. TCL is setting up a 30,000-litres-per-day ethanol plant and has ventured into wholesaling of fresh agricultural produce. This diversification would help in mitigating risk from slowdown in the core business.
Challenges: TCL has to see through an effective integration strategy of its soda ash business with the overseas acquisition. Managing overall growth of the company will be a tough task given the diversification into new business domains.
VOLTAS
Competencies & Opportunities: Voltas is a market leader in central air-conditioning and climate control business in India, besides being a major player in booming West Asia. It is also India's leading distributor and re-seller of textile and mining equipment. Recently it went through a corporate restructuring which has transformed it into a leaner and competitive player. The demand for central A/Cs and climate control systems is booming, thanks to rapid growth in retail, real estate and hospitality sectors. It has also got a boost from strong capex in textile, mining and retail sectors where it supplies forklifts.
Challenges: Being a capital goods supplier, it's highly prone to an economic downturn. It faces strong competitors across its product portfolio. The consumer air-conditioner business continues to be a drag on the company's profitability.
TATA TELE (MAHA)
Competencies & Opportunities: The company is aggressively expanding its base in smaller circles. Increasing presence in high-growth telecom circles B and C will help the company grow its subscriber base rapidly from existing five million.
Challenges: Higher competition is likely to put further pressure on the company’s average revenue per user. This necessitates more focus on value-added services. The company currently provides mobile services on CDMA platform. Establishing a GSM footprint would be a challenging task given competition from bigger GSM players. The company needs to expand its operations in the field of managed services to stay competitive. The company lacks brand recognition. It has to establish its brand presence in the highly competitive
markets.
TITAN IND
Competencies & Opportunities: Titan has diversified into a wide consumer-centric product portfolio comprising time pieces, jewellery, eye wear, and precision equipment among others. A good pedigree, reputed brand standing and strong distribution and service network offer good prospects for the company to ride the boom in consumption. Expansion of retail stores, specially in tier II cities, will help the company increase profitability.
Challenges: Record high gold prices can lead to a drop in jewellery demand, restricting the company's growth in the business. International foray may not be very profitable in view of the global economic slowdown. Branded retail segment is fraught with intense competition. Dominance of unorganised players in the lower end of the watch market poses a challenge. Given rising incomes, Titan may have to face competition from international brands in the premium watch category.
TRENT
Competencies & Opportunities: After establishing its foothold in retail space through Westside stores, Trent is taking new initiatives of foraying into the premium segment. Recently, it joined forces with the Benetton Group for the expansion of the Sisley brand in India. It is tying up with designers to mark its presence in a range different from the private labels. This will help the company face stiff competition in the domestic retail space. Trent has reported good growth in the past few years. Revenues have grown consistently (CAGR of 55% from FY04-07). A sustained revenue model is necessary as it facilitates future expansion plans.
Challenges: The roll out of new stores has not been aggressive. The company has added only 19 stores from ’03 till date. Faces competition from aggressive players such as Pantaloon and new entrants including Reliance Retail.
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